Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Marine Le Pen
Open$10Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 87% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES87¢
NO14¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Poll for the 2027 presidential election: Marine Le Pen leads in all scenarios
LIVE
A new poll predicts a duel between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is slightly ahead of Édouard Philippe
Marine Le Pen leads in the first round against Jean-Luc Mélenchon: the latest poll on voting intentions for the 2027 presidential election
Presidential election: Marine Le Pen continues to lead in the polls, regardless of the second-round scenarios
2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen would win in all scenarios in the second round, according to an Ifop poll
2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen at her highest level after the court decision… Discover the Figaro poll
EXPLAINED: Why is Marine Le Pen now able to run for the French presidency? • • After more than a year of uncertainty, a court ruling means the French far-right politician can run in the country’s 2027 presidential election. How has the situation been resolved, at least for now?
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2027 Presidential Election: Laure Lavalette, spokesperson for the National Rally, speaks of "great relief" after Marine Le Pen's candidacy
Marine Le Pen announced that she will run for president of France in 2027 The leader of the French "National Union" said that she would file a cassation appeal against the court's decision and conduct a presidential campaign without an electronic bracelet. According to Le Pen, the appeal to the Court of Cassation suspends the execution of her sentence. So, tonight I am a candidate in the presidential election, — the politician announced on French television. Le Pen also assured that she no longer sees any scenario in which she would not be able to participate in the 2027 elections.
"There's no scenario in which I can't run for president," French far-right leader Marine Le Pen declared in a television appearance after her conviction, stating her intention to run in the 2027 spring presidential election.
Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen announces her presidential candidacy for 2027 Far-right politician Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy for the 2027 French presidential elections after an appeals court reduced her disqualification from 60 to 45 months, allowing her to run despite her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds.
Marine Le Pen, former leader of France's far-right party, was found guilty on appeal, but the suspension of her eligibility to run for office was shortened. She has announced she will run in next year's presidential election.
French President Marine Le Pen intends to run for president in 2027, despite a guilty verdict in her appeals court; she has indicated her intention to appeal.
French far-right defendant Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election after conviction
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen found guilty again in her second trial; however, the reduction in her suspension from running for office will allow her to announce her candidacy for next year's presidential election.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she will run for president in 2027 – video
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to run for president in 2027; leading in approval ratings, appeals in finance fraud trial
French far-right figure Marine Le Pen has been found guilty again, making her legally eligible to run in next year's presidential election.
French court clears way for Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 but under a condition she rejects
Marine Le Pen Cleared To Run In Next Presidential Election
Where does the news lean?
99YES20NO24neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 52% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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