Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Olivier Faure
Open$3Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Left-wing primary: after Raphaël Glucksmann's victory, are Olivier Faure and François Hollande out of the running?
LIVE
"We now have a candidate": Olivier Faure, who came in second in the primary, congratulates Raphaël Glucksmann
LIVE. "We now have a candidate": Olivier Faure, who came in second in the primary, congratulates Raphaël Glucksmann
Press release from the CHOISIR 2027 left-wing primary | Results of the first round of a left-wing primary marked by voter enthusiasm On Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 6:00 PM, the first round of the socialist and democratic left-wing primary concluded. The results of this first round are as follows: - Olivier Faure: 14.46% (17,398 votes)
- Jérôme Guedj: 5.83% (7,012 votes)
- Emmanuel Maurel: 5.92% (7,119 votes)
- Raphaël Glucksmann: 66.17% (79,613 votes)
- Ségolène Royal: 7.62% (9,165 votes) The election was held from Friday, October 9 at 8:00 a.m. to Sunday, October 11 at 6:00 p.m., after being extended by one day following significant cyberattacks on October 9.
These attacks did not compromise the integrity of the election, nor did they interrupt the voting process, but they considerably slowed voters' ability to cast their ballots. As of Sunday, October 11, at 5:00 PM, with a turnout of 88.88%, representing 120,787 voters out of 134,456 eligible to vote, the enthusiasm of left-wing voters for this unprecedented democratic exercise within the framework of the 2027 presidential election campaign is evident. The organizers of the election mobilized considerable energy and significant human and technical resources to ensure the smooth running and integrity of the vote. In this regard, while 140,282 people had registered, rigorous checks carried out within a limited timeframe removed voters who were not identified on the electoral lists or who were registered with multiple parties. The frustrations caused by these rigorous checks reflect the rigor of the voting process.
Live: "I want to build a fairer France": Olivier Faure officially announces his presidential candidacy
Live: It's 4 PM, here's a news update: • #POLITICS The First Secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, announced to the members of his parliamentary group his candidacy for the left-wing primary...
Presidential election 2027: Olivier Faure a candidate in the primary organized by the Socialist Party and Place Publique
Presidential election: Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure will announce his candidacy for the left-wing primary ahead of 2027
2027 Presidential Election: The Socialist Party opts for a closed primary to select its candidate; Olivier Faure disavowed
Presidential election 2027: The Socialist Party opts for a closed primary to select its candidate, Olivier Faure disavowed
Where does the news lean?
17YES10NO44neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 78% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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