Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Raphaël Glucksmann
Open$8Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
25 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
2027 Presidential Election: "It's violent," Valérie Trierweiler warns Léa Salamé after Raphaël Glucksmann's primary victory
France’s Glucksmann notched a crushing primary victory. But he needs more allies to win the presidency.
2027 Presidential Election: After the Primary, Raphaël Glucksmann faces the arduous challenge of uniting
Congratulations to Raphaël Glucksmann on his victory in the Socialist and Democratic Left primary. Voters have made their voices heard in large numbers, and it is now up to us to unite behind our candidate. I commend the commitment of Olivier Faure and the other candidates, who contributed to a high-quality debate. I urge them to forge a new unity in the face of the challenges ahead.
Presidential election 2027. Raphaël Glucksmann wins the left-wing primary: "The choice is clear"
LIVE
2027 Presidential Election: Raphaël Glucksmann, the clear winner of the Socialist primary, declares that "the democratic left is back"
Live: #PRESIDENTIAL How to explain Raphaël Glucksmann's resounding victory in the social-democratic left-wing primary?...
Raphaël Glucksmann overwhelmingly elected as the social-democratic left-wing candidate for the presidential election
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: "From now on, not a second can be wasted," the presidential candidate tells his supporters
LIVE
Socialist Party/Public Square Primary: Raphaël Glucksmann asserts, after his victory, that "the democratic left is back"
Raphael Glucksmann elected centre-left French presidential candidate
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the left-wing primary: "I am very happy for my socialist family," declares Boris Vallaud, Socialist MP for Landes. "There is momentum, there is strength," continues Glucksmann's supporter. #canal16 #franceinfo
MEP Glucksmann wins French center-left primary, becoming candidate for presidency
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: "You are now the elected candidate of the three parties associated in this primary," declares Olivier Faure
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: Olivier Faure arrives to cheers after his defeat
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: "Marine Le Pen will not be in the Élysée Palace in May 2027," declares the winning candidate
Raphaël Glucksmann's victory in the Social Democratic primary: "I wish him all the best," says Ségolène Royal, the losing candidate
Presidential election 2027: Raphaël Glucksmann nominated as the social-democratic left-wing candidate after the primary
BREAKING NEWS
Raphaël Glucksmann elected by a wide margin in the first round of the social-democratic left-wing primary
Social Democratic primary: Raphaël Glucksmann elected in the first round with over 66%
LIVE
Boris Vallaud confirms his support for Raphaël Glucksmann, "the best prepared on the left"
Presidential election: Boris Vallaud, head of the Socialist Party in the National Assembly, announces his support for Raphaël Glucksmann
Live: Here's a first look at the news headlines: #PRESIDENTIAL Raphaël Glucksmann announced his candidacy for the presidential election this Sunday evening on TF1's 8 PM news...
BREAKING NEWS
Raphaël Glucksmann announces his candidacy for the presidential election
LIVE
Raphaël Glucksmann's candidacy announcement for 2027 expected this Sunday
Where does the news lean?
144YES6NO71neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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See all outcomes for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.