Brazil Presidential Election

OpenOutcomes32as of

Market pricing makes Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the favorite at 56% across 32 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

All further outcomes (2 more):

Person Z · Other

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

My opponent is the one who indebted Brazil and dragged the Brazilian people through the mud while eating emu and duck eggs in the Presidential Palace. He is the one I am facing, and he is the one I will defeat in October. And today it is becoming increasingly clear: Flávio Bolsonaro is the only one who can defeat Lula. Let's end this election in the first round. It's time for everyone who wants change to converge to overcome backwardness and defeat those who indebted the majority of Brazilian families. Let's liberate our country and begin a new chapter in our history. Brazil will win! Vote 22 #Bolsonaro #FlavioBolsonaro #Vote22 #ForaPT
Public opinion polls in Brazil show President Lula Silva leading his right-wing rival Bolsonaro.
Lula da Silva leads his right-wing rival by 4 points in Brazilian opinion polls. Details from our correspondent, Daddah Abdallah.
Polls: Lula da Silva leads his right-wing rival Flavio Bolsonaro in the Brazilian presidential race
Lula da Silva leads in the Brazilian presidential race. Details with Al Arabiya TV correspondent:
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva launched his reelection campaign in São Bernardo do Campo. In a massive rally, the president reaffirmed his commitment to the working class and presented the key points of his platform: a frontal assault on organized crime networks and the eradication of gender-based violence. He called for unity among grassroots organizations and defended the institutional transformations achieved during his terms in office. #Brazil #Lula #LatinAmerica #BrazilElections #teleSUR #Aug17
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva launched his reelection campaign in São Bernardo do Campo. In a massive rally, the president reaffirmed his commitment to the working class and presented the key points of his platform: a frontal assault on organized crime networks and the eradication of gender-based violence. He called for unity among grassroots organizations and defended the institutional transformations achieved during his terms in office. #Brazil #Lula #LatinAmerica #BrazilElections #teleSUR #Aug16
Lula holds tight lead over Senator Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Brazilian president announces his candidacy for a new term
A Quaest poll placed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the favorite in Brazil's presidential elections, with 38% of the vote compared to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. In four simulated runoff scenarios, Lula would win every time, while Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado tied for third place with 4%.
Flávio Bolsonaro launched his first presidential campaign event this Sunday in Rio de Janeiro. He promised the return of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, convicted for leading the attempted coup against Lula. #Brazil #teleSUR
From the historic Vila Euclides stadium, Lula da Silva officially launches his reelection campaign in Brazil. Focusing on the fight against gender violence, organized crime, and strengthening social investment, the progressive leader seeks to consolidate the transformations of his administration alongside the "Brazil Ready for More" coalition. #Lula #Brazil #Elections2026 #Politics #Telesur #Aug16
Brazil’s Lula launches reelection bid, aims to win back workers to his Workers Party
Poll shows Lula leading in Brazil Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the Quaest poll of 13 presidential candidates with 38 percent of the vote.
El presidente brasileño, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, encabeza la intención de voto con un 39% para la primera vuelta, según una encuesta de Genial/Quaest registrada ante el Tribunal Superior Electoral. • • En segundo lugar se ubica el senador Flávio Bolsonaro con un 30%, mientras que el actual mandatario mantiene la delantera en todos los escenarios de balotaje frente a los demás candidatos. • • Ante este panorama de cara a octubre, la plataforma del Partido de los Trabajadores plantea la continuidad de políticas asistenciales, la ampliación de programas estudiantiles y la protección a adultos mayores para consolidar su base social.
A new poll shows Lula da Silva leading Flavio Bolsonaro in the Brazilian presidential race. @WaelTamimi
#Brazil elections: Poll shows Lula leading Bolsonaro #SkyOnline %B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%B1%D8%A3%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B8%D9%87%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%AF%D9%85-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88
Lula leads Bolsonaro but gap narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Brazilian President Lula da Silva officially announces his candidacy for a new presidential term with the support of the country's left-wing parties. Report by: Daddah Abdallah
Lula pledges to defend Brazil's sovereignty by announcing his candidacy for re-election Brazil's president has announced his candidacy for the country's presidential election in October, presenting himself as an experienced leader capable of guiding the country in times of global instability. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Lula: "Neither Americans nor French will lay a finger on our rare earth elements." The president of Brazil promised to protect the country's mineral wealth and increase defense investment as he formalized his candidacy for reelection. #Brazil #Lula #teleSUR
Incumbent Lula has announced his candidacy for re-election in Brazil's presidential election in October.
Incumbent Lula has announced his candidacy for re-election in the Brazilian presidential election in October.
Brazil's ruling party nominates incumbent Lula for presidential election, focusing on national defense.
Brazilian President Lula runs as Workers' Party presidential candidate… seeking fourth term.
Brazil's Workers' Party officially nominated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for the October elections, in which he will seek a fourth term in the Planalto Palace alongside Geraldo Alckmin. Lula arrived accompanied by the First Lady and was greeted by a large crowd of supporters. The president leads in the polls with a platform focused on economic growth and reducing inequality. #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro #Elections #teleSUR
Brazilian President Lula da Silva has launched his presidential campaign for the elections on October 4th.
ALERT: Brazil's Lula, 80, says 'in great shape' as he launches bid for fourth term
Brazilian President Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth term in the elections scheduled for next October.
Brazil: At 80, Lula launches his campaign for a fourth term

What is this event about?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related events