Brazil Presidential ElectionFlávio Bolsonaro
Open$9.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 41% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES41¢
NO59¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Flavio Bolsonaro has become a candidate for the presidency of Brazil The Liberal Party has approved the candidacy of Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. In the upcoming elections, he intends to compete with the current head of state, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Details - here [in reply to: Dozens of people injured by lightning strike at a rally in support of Bolsonaro According to doctors, 29 victims with burns, mainly to the arms and abdomen, were taken to hospitals. The condition of at least eight people is assessed as serious. The rest received assistance on the spot or as outpatients. ]
Flávio Bolsonaro launches his presidential candidacy alongside Javier Milei in São Paulo The far-right senator promised to "rescue" Brazil, following in the footsteps of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, convicted and imprisoned for an attempted coup. Will Bolsonarism be able to mobilize the Brazilian electorate in October without its historic leader?
Brazil's right-wing party nominates Bolsonaro son to battle Lula
Brazilian right-wing party nominates Bolsonaro's eldest son for the next presidential election; he has good relations with Trump.
Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, is formally nominated by his party as candidate in the October presidential election. He is set to face leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva who is seeking a 4th term. •
Flavio Bolsonaro launches Brazil presidential campaign, touts support from Milei, Netanyahu
Brazilian Presidential Election: Bolsonaro's eldest son officially announces candidacy; Trump also offers support
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
Live: #BRAZIL Flavio Bolsonaro has been nominated by Brazil's main right-wing party to challenge left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the October elections...
ALERT: Flavio Bolsonaro formally nominated for Brazil's presidential race
Crisis-hit Flavio Bolsonaro launches presidential candidacy in Brazil
Lula leads with 48% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 43% in the race for the October presidential elections, according to Datafolha. The margin has barely changed since June. The far-right candidate will be officially launched this Saturday in São Paulo with Javier Milei as a guest. #teleSUR #Brazil #Lula
The Liberal Party is launching Flavio Bolsonaro's candidacy for the Brazilian presidency.
NOReuters99%match77¢-23%
Lula Would Win Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off with 48.8% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 42.3% - Atlasintel/Bloomberg Poll
YESReuters98%match40¢+3%
Flavio Bolsonaro Seen with 42% of Vote vs Lula’s 40% in Brazil’s Presidential Election Potential Run-Off - Genial/Quaest Poll
YESBloomberg99%match18¢+128%
Flavio Bolsonaro is gaining ground on President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s looming election
NOBloomberg99%match85¢-31%
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintained a steady lead over his main challengers, including Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, ahead of Brazil’s 2026 election
YESCGTN America99%match6¢+583%
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR, SAYS CNN BRASIL
YESCGTN Europe98%match6¢+583%
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR - REPORTS
YESBloomberg99%match6¢+583%
Brazilian assets slumped to session lows after a local media report that former President Bolsonaro intends to back his son Flavio Bolsonaro in presidential elections next October
Where does the news lean?
37YES18NO15neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Related markets
See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.