Brazil Presidential ElectionJair Bolsonaro
Open$6.5Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, is formally nominated by his party as candidate in the October presidential election. He is set to face leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva who is seeking a 4th term. •
NOBloomberg99%match99¢+1%
Flavio Bolsonaro is gaining ground on President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s looming election
NOBloomberg99%match99¢+1%
A Brazilian Supreme Court justice ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to prison to continue serving his sentence for trying to remain in power after his narrow 2022 election defeat
NOBloomberg99%match99¢+1%
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintained a steady lead over his main challengers, including Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, ahead of Brazil’s 2026 election
NOThe Economist99%match99¢+1%
Brazil’s right has flailed in the vacuum left by the jailing of its populist figurehead, Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s approval ratings have surged as a result
NOReuters99%match99¢+1%
Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flavio's 2026 presidential bid in a statement from a hospital where he underwent a scheduled hernia operation that doctors said went smoothly
NOReuters99%match99¢+1%
Jair Bolsonaro backs son's Brazil presidential bid, undergoes hernia surgery
NOReuters98%match99¢+1%
Brazil's Bolsonaro endorses son for presidency before more surgery
NOBloomberg99%match99¢+1%
Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro released a handwritten letter confirming that he was backing one of his sons for the 2026 presidential race
YESReuters98%match1¢-100%
Brazil's Senate approved a bill to shorten the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro, although it is likely to face resistance from the Supreme Court and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
YESBloomberg98%match1¢-100%
Brazil’s Senate approved legislation to reduce the sentence former leader Jair Bolsonaro must serve for plotting a coup after his narrow 2022 election loss, setting up a potential clash between Congress, President Lula and the Supreme Court
NOAl Jazeera English99%match99¢+1%
Thousands of people joined demonstrations across Brazil to protest against a bill that would reduce the prison sentence of former president, Jair Bolsonaro. He was jailed for plotting a failed coup after losing the 2022 elections.
NOCGTN Europe98%match99¢+1%
BRAZIL'S LULA: RIGHT WING POLITICS NOT SURE ABOUT THEIR 2026 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BECAUSE THEY WILL LOSE THE ELECTION
NOThe Economist99%match99¢+1%
Many Brazilian analysts believe the 2026 presidential race will feature traditional politicians rather than populist outsiders. This would mark the return of moderation after a decade of polarisation and political chaos
NOBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
Brazil’s lower house of Congress approved a bill that could reduce the amount of time former President Jair Bolsonaro spends in jail for plotting a coup
NOThe Economist98%match99¢+1%
Fatigue with both the hard right and the left opens up space for a centrist resurgence in Brazil in 2026
NOCGTN Europe98%match99¢+1%
BRAZIL SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO: SPOKE TO FORMER PRESIDENT BOLSONARO, WE WILL NOT WALK BACK ON MY PRESIDENTIAL RUN
NOFirst Squawk98%match99¢+1%
BRAZIL STOCKS DROPPED SHARPLY, THE BIGGEST SINCE 2021, BECAUSE OF BOLSONARO SON'S RUN FOR OFFICE
NOCGTN America98%match99¢+1%
BRAZIL SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO SAYS FATHER JAIR BOLSONARO HAS CHOSEN HIM FOR "THE MISSION OF GIVING CONTINUITY TO OUR PROJECT FOR THE NATION"
NOzerohedge98%match99¢+1%
*FLAVIO BOLSONARO SAYS FATHER TOLD HIM TO CARRY ON MISSION [Quoting @zerohedge]
> *FLAVIO BOLSONARO TELLS ALLY FATHER CHOSE HIM TO RUN IN 2026
Where does the news lean?
3YES29NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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