Brazil Presidential ElectionEduardo Bolsonaro
Open$10.4Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOBloomberg98%match100¢
Flavio Bolsonaro is gaining ground on President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s looming election
NOBloomberg99%match100¢
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintained a steady lead over his main challengers, including Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, ahead of Brazil’s 2026 election
YESReuters98%match0¢
Jair Bolsonaro backs son's Brazil presidential bid, undergoes hernia surgery
YESReuters99%match0¢
Brazil's Bolsonaro endorses son for presidency before more surgery
NOAl Jazeera English98%match100¢
Thousands of people joined demonstrations across Brazil to protest against a bill that would reduce the prison sentence of former president, Jair Bolsonaro. He was jailed for plotting a failed coup after losing the 2022 elections.
NOThe Economist99%match100¢
Many Brazilian analysts believe the 2026 presidential race will feature traditional politicians rather than populist outsiders. This would mark the return of moderation after a decade of polarisation and political chaos
NOThe Economist98%match100¢
Fatigue with both the hard right and the left opens up space for a centrist resurgence in Brazil in 2026
NOCGTN Europe98%match100¢
BRAZIL SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO: SPOKE TO FORMER PRESIDENT BOLSONARO, WE WILL NOT WALK BACK ON MY PRESIDENTIAL RUN
NOThe Economist99%match100¢
Politics in Brazil, as elsewhere, has been shaken up in recent years by populism. What path might the country take in 2026?
NOBloomberg99%match100¢
Bolsonaro tapped his eldest son as the right’s bet to defeat Lula next year. Investors aren’t thrilled.
NOAl Jazeera English99%match100¢
Flavio Bolsonaro enters Brazil’s 2026 presidential race with father’s nod
YESFirst Squawk98%match0¢
BRAZIL STOCKS DROPPED SHARPLY, THE BIGGEST SINCE 2021, BECAUSE OF BOLSONARO SON'S RUN FOR OFFICE
NOCGTN America97%match100¢
BRAZIL SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO SAYS FATHER JAIR BOLSONARO HAS CHOSEN HIM FOR "THE MISSION OF GIVING CONTINUITY TO OUR PROJECT FOR THE NATION"
NOzerohedge98%match100¢
*FLAVIO BOLSONARO SAYS FATHER TOLD HIM TO CARRY ON MISSION [Quoting @zerohedge]
> *FLAVIO BOLSONARO TELLS ALLY FATHER CHOSE HIM TO RUN IN 2026
NOCGTN Europe97%match100¢
BRAZIL SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO SAYS FATHER JAIR BOLSONARO HAS CHOSEN HIM FOR "THE MISSION OF GIVING CONTINUITY TO OUR PROJECT FOR THE NATION"
NOCGTN America98%match100¢
BRAZIL'S BOLSONARO SUPPORTS SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT NEXT YEAR, SAYS HEAD OF LIBERAL PARTY
NOzerohedge98%match100¢
*FLAVIO BOLSONARO TELLS ALLY FATHER CHOSE HIM TO RUN IN 2026
NOCGTN America98%match100¢
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR, SAYS CNN BRASIL
NOCGTN Europe98%match100¢
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR - REPORTS
NOBloomberg98%match100¢
Brazilian assets slumped to session lows after a local media report that former President Bolsonaro intends to back his son Flavio Bolsonaro in presidential elections next October
Where does the news lean?
3YES19NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.