Brazil Presidential ElectionMichelle Bolsonaro
Open$10.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOAl Jazeera English98%match99¢+1%
Thousands of people joined demonstrations across Brazil to protest against a bill that would reduce the prison sentence of former president, Jair Bolsonaro. He was jailed for plotting a failed coup after losing the 2022 elections.
NOThe Economist98%match99¢+1%
Many Brazilian analysts believe the 2026 presidential race will feature traditional politicians rather than populist outsiders. This would mark the return of moderation after a decade of polarisation and political chaos
NOThe Economist98%match99¢+1%
Fatigue with both the hard right and the left opens up space for a centrist resurgence in Brazil in 2026
NOThe Economist99%match99¢+1%
Politics in Brazil, as elsewhere, has been shaken up in recent years by populism. What path might the country take in 2026?
NOBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
Bolsonaro tapped his eldest son as the right’s bet to defeat Lula next year. Investors aren’t thrilled.
NOAl Jazeera English99%match99¢+1%
Flavio Bolsonaro enters Brazil’s 2026 presidential race with father’s nod
NOzerohedge98%match99¢+1%
*FLAVIO BOLSONARO SAYS FATHER TOLD HIM TO CARRY ON MISSION [Quoting @zerohedge]
> *FLAVIO BOLSONARO TELLS ALLY FATHER CHOSE HIM TO RUN IN 2026
NOzerohedge98%match99¢+1%
*FLAVIO BOLSONARO TELLS ALLY FATHER CHOSE HIM TO RUN IN 2026
NOCGTN America98%match99¢+1%
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR, SAYS CNN BRASIL
NOCGTN Europe98%match99¢+1%
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR - REPORTS
NOBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
Brazilian assets slumped to session lows after a local media report that former President Bolsonaro intends to back his son Flavio Bolsonaro in presidential elections next October
Where does the news lean?
0YES11NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.