Brazil Presidential ElectionLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva

OpenVol$25.1MDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 24% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES24¢
NO77¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOafp97%match83¢-8%
Brazilians react to Bolsonaro's shock lead over President Lula • • Brazilians in Sao Paulo share a mix of views after right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro -- son of former president Jair Bolsonaro -- pulled off a surprise first-place finish in the first round election, beating incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
NOalakhbarnews98%match83¢-8%
Saeed Mohammed | Brazil Heads Towards a Second Round of Elections: Lula Prepares for the Decisive Battle To read the full article Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva failed to secure a first-round victory in the Brazilian presidential elections, while Flavio Bolsonaro exceeded expectations, capitalizing on his father's right-wing base. With the runoff now underway, Lula faces the challenge of broadening his support base in the face of the right-wing momentum.
NOIran Semi-Official Mehr97%match83¢-8%
FWD from Mehr International: Mehr examined; "Lula da Silva" under siege by right-wingers; Which way is Brazil going? The Brazilian presidential election did not end in the first round, contrary to expectations, and now the largest country in Latin America has entered a critical phase. Flavio Bolsonaro's initial victory does not mean the end of Lula da Silva; rather, it has marked a tight competition that could determine Brazil's political path and international status for years to come. Flavio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator and son of Jair Bolsonaro, came in first place in the first round with 47.03 percent of the vote, and Lula da Silva, the current president, came in second with 45.16 percent. Neither candidate won more than half of the valid votes, and Brazilians will go to the polls again on October 25. Ultimately, Brazil's elections are not just about who will become president on October 25; more importantly, the path the country chooses for its future. Lula represents the continuation of a policy that emphasizes Brazil's independence, distancing itself from foreign powers, and playing an independent role in Latin America and the global South; in contrast, Flavio's victory could strengthen the right-wing movement and bring Brasilia closer to Washington. Flavio's lead in the first round showed that Bolsonaro's movement still has a strong social base, but the narrow gap between the two candidates means that Lula still has a serious chance of winning. The second round is actually a test of whether Brazilians will continue Lula's path of political and social independence or vote for the return of Bolsonaro's current. mehrnews.com/x3dfGc @MehrnewsIntl
NOcrowdfundinsider.com99%match84¢-10%
Prediction Markets : Polymarket Beat Traditional Polls in the Brazilian Election. • Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the opening round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, an ordering that several late national polls had not projected and that the prediction market Polymarket had priced for weeks. The split between survey... Read More
NOalhadath98%match83¢-8%
Lula da Silva is "optimistic about winning in stoppage time" after Bolsonaro's son took a two-point lead in the first round of the Brazilian presidential elections. Flavio is "very happy with the result." The final decision will be made on October 25.
NOalakhbarnews98%match81¢-6%
Right-wing Bolsonaro leads Lula in first round of Brazil elections To read the full story Brazilian right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will face left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential runoff later this month, after exceeding expectations in Sunday's first-round vote with a slight lead over the incumbent president.
YESalarabytv92%match45¢-47%
In an effort to win more votes and curb inflation, the government of Brazilian President Lula da Silva has decided to lower gasoline and diesel prices. Report by: Daddah Abdallah
YESIran State News Agency98%match50¢-52%
Lula da Silva leads Brazilian presidential election polls with 39% ⠀ Efe News Agency: Brazilian President Lula da Silva and presidential candidate for the new term remains at the top of the polls with 39% of voter support; however, Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, is in second place with 35% support, narrowing his gap with the current president. ⠀ #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
YESVenezuela State-Backed TV97%match44¢-45%
President Lula da Silva leads in voting intentions ahead of Brazil's October elections, according to an Atlas/Intel poll.
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Public opinion polls in Brazil show President Lula Silva leading his right-wing rival Bolsonaro.
YESalarabytv97%match64¢-62%
Lula da Silva leads his right-wing rival by 4 points in Brazilian opinion polls. Details from our correspondent, Daddah Abdallah.
YESalarabytv97%match64¢-62%
Polls: Lula da Silva leads his right-wing rival Flavio Bolsonaro in the Brazilian presidential race
YESVenezuela State-Backed TV97%match66¢-64%
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva launched his reelection campaign in São Bernardo do Campo. In a massive rally, the president reaffirmed his commitment to the working class and presented the key points of his platform: a frontal assault on organized crime networks and the eradication of gender-based violence. He called for unity among grassroots organizations and defended the institutional transformations achieved during his terms in office. #Brazil #Lula #LatinAmerica #BrazilElections #teleSUR #Aug17
YESVenezuela State-Backed TV97%match66¢-64%
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva launched his reelection campaign in São Bernardo do Campo. In a massive rally, the president reaffirmed his commitment to the working class and presented the key points of his platform: a frontal assault on organized crime networks and the eradication of gender-based violence. He called for unity among grassroots organizations and defended the institutional transformations achieved during his terms in office. #Brazil #Lula #LatinAmerica #BrazilElections #teleSUR #Aug16
YESdbws.io94%match66¢-64%
Lula holds tight lead over Senator Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
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Brazilian president announces his candidacy for a new term
YESVenezuela State-Backed TV98%match67¢-64%
A Quaest poll placed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the favorite in Brazil's presidential elections, with 38% of the vote compared to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. In four simulated runoff scenarios, Lula would win every time, while Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado tied for third place with 4%.
YESVenezuela State-Backed TV97%match67¢-64%
From the historic Vila Euclides stadium, Lula da Silva officially launches his reelection campaign in Brazil. Focusing on the fight against gender violence, organized crime, and strengthening social investment, the progressive leader seeks to consolidate the transformations of his administration alongside the "Brazil Ready for More" coalition. #Lula #Brazil #Elections2026 #Politics #Telesur #Aug16
YESdbws.io93%match67¢-64%
Brazil’s Lula launches reelection bid, aims to win back workers to his Workers Party
YESVenezuela State-Backed TV98%match64¢-62%
Poll shows Lula leading in Brazil Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the Quaest poll of 13 presidential candidates with 38 percent of the vote.

Where does the news lean?

74YES20NO72neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.

What would make this resolve YES?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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