Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closedSeptember 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$4.2Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
1,151 commercial ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in September Yemen's Ministry of Transport:
1,151 ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in September. International maritime and commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait continues with high security and smoothness. isna.ir/xdXbvK
@isna94
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 1,151 international commercial vessels transited Bab al-Mandab during the month of September - International maritime and commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait continues safely and smoothly - The navigation ban targets exclusively vessels belonging to the Saudi enemy, while all international commercial vessels enjoy complete freedom and safety in transiting through Bab al-Mandab
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 1,151 international commercial vessels transited Bab al-Mandab during the month of September International maritime and commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait continues safely and smoothly The navigation ban targets exclusively vessels belonging to the Saudi enemy, while all international commercial vessels enjoy complete freedom and safety in transiting through Bab al-Mandab
Urgent | Ministry of Transport: 1,151 international commercial vessels transited Bab al-Mandab during September. International maritime and commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait continues safely and smoothly. #Saba_News_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 1,151 international commercial vessels crossed through Bab al-Mandab during the month of September.
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 1,151 International Commercial Vessels Crossed Bab al-Mandab in September The Ministry of Transport and Public Works recorded the passage of 1,151 international commercial vessels through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, both north and south, during September 2026.
#Saba_News_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
Urgent | Ministry of Transport: 198 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait north and south during the past five days. - The number of vessels passing north through the Bab al-Mandab Strait reached 104 commercial vessels, representing 52.5 percent of the total traffic. - 94 commercial vessels transited south, representing 47.5 percent. - Friday, September 25, saw the highest transit rate with 50 vessels, 30 of which headed north and 20 south. - We continue to lead monitoring efforts and exchange vital navigational data to ensure the safety and security of international navigation through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. - Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all international vessels except for Saudi enemy vessels. #Saba_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
NONews94%match99¢+1%
(Houthi's Yemen TV) Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 408 commercial vessels crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait during the period from September 11 to 21.
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 408 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait between September 11 and 21 196 vessels transited Bab al-Mandab northbound and 212 southbound over the 10-day period More than 40 commercial vessels of various types transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait daily The number of vessels transiting Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 since the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 vessels between September 1 and 10 Navigation through Bab al-Mandab is proceeding smoothly and safely for international commercial vessels, with the exception of Saudi vessels The continued normal and safe traffic in Bab al-Mandab refutes claims of a halt in navigation or an insecurity in the waterway
Urgent | Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 408 commercial vessels crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait between September 11 and 21. - 196 vessels crossed Bab al-Mandab northbound and 212 vessels southbound over 10 days. - More than 40 commercial vessels of various types cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait daily. - The number of vessels crossing Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 after the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 vessels between September 1 and 10. - Navigation through Bab al-Mandab is proceeding smoothly and safely for international commercial vessels, with the exception of Saudi vessels. - The continued normal and safe traffic in Bab al-Mandab refutes claims of a halt in navigation or the insecurity of the waterway. #Saba_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
Ministry of Transport: The number of ships crossing Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 after the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 ships during the period from September 1 to 10.
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 408 commercial vessels crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait during the period from September 11 to 21.
A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al-Masirah 316 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait between September 10 and 18 The average number of ships crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait was approximately 35 per day during the period from September 10 to 18
Live: Commercial ships still transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Houthis take islands
Conflicts in Yemen have brought ship traffic in Bab al-Mandeb to a standstill. The escalating conflict on Yemen's western coast has brought ship traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the most sensitive points in global logistics, to a standstill, putting a vital maritime route at great risk. 10% of world maritime trade and 12% of global crude oil pass through here. The passage of oil and chemical tankers has decreased by 91%. Only 1 ship passed through in the last 24 hours, while total ship traffic decreased by 88% in 24 hours.
A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al-Masirah: - 72 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the past two days - 29 ships crossed on September 12 and 43 ships on September 13 through the Bab al-Mandab Strait - 145 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the past four days
A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al-Masirah: - 72 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the past two days - 29 ships crossed on September 12 and 43 ships on September 13 through the Bab al-Mandab Strait - 145 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the past four days
A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al-Masirah: 72 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the past two days 29 ships crossed on September 12 and 43 ships crossed on September 13 through the Bab al-Mandab Strait 145 ships crossed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the past four days
A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al-Masirah: 72 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the past two days 29 ships crossed on September 12 and 43 ships crossed on September 13 through the Bab al-Mandab Strait 145 ships crossed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the past four days
NONews97%match94¢+6%
(Al Masirah) A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al Masirah: 29 ships crossed on September 12, and 439 ships crossed on September 13, passing through Bab al-Mandab.
Watch | By the Numbers... International Navigation in #Bab_al-Mandab is Safe and Regular 01-04-1448 AH 12-09-2026 AD Ship Movement in Bab al-Mandab Total Transit in Two Days: 73 Ships
September 10: 36 Ships
September 11: 37 Ships
Incoming Ships: 35 Ships
Outgoing Ships: 38 Ships
FWD from Shahed - Al-Masirah Satellite Channel: Shahed | In Numbers... International Navigation in #Bab_al-Mandab is Safe and Regular 01-04-1448 AH 12-09-2026 AD Ship Movement in Bab al-Mandab Total Transit in Two Days: 73 Ships
September 10: 36 Ships
September 11: 37 Ships
Incoming Ships: 35 Ships
Outgoing Ships: 38 Ships #SiegeForSiege
Urgent A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al-Masirah: 73 ships crossed Bab al-Mandab in the past two days - Bab al-Mandab saw the passage of 36 ships on September 10 and 37 ships on September 11 - The Yemeni blockade on Saudi shipping has not affected the smooth flow of international shipping through Bab al-Mandab - The passage of 73 ships through Bab al-Mandab in 48 hours is equivalent to 98.6% of the average passage before the Yemeni blockade - The actual figures for ship traffic refute claims that international shipping in Bab al-Mandab is at risk
The Houthis have opened a window to the strait. On September 11, militants from the radical Ansar Allah movement established complete control over Yemen's western coast and landed on neighboring islands. This happened the day after the group breached the defenses of the Yemeni central government forces in key areas on the coast of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia, which supports the central government of Yemen and uses the Red Sea as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which is blocked by Iran, fears a new naval blockade and is asking the US administration for help. “The question facing the international community is no longer whether the war in Yemen will resume, but how to cope with a new, more dangerous stage (of the civil conflict.— Kommersant), the consequences of which, if left unchecked, will extend beyond Yemen’s borders,” said the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy for Yemen. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
The Houthis have established full control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Reuters reports. According to the agency, the Houthi takeover of the strategic island of Perim has allowed the movement to establish control over the entire strait. The Houthis also occupied the town of Dubab, located directly at the entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb. Furthermore, the movement reported taking control of six districts in the provinces of Taiz and Hodeidah, covering a total area of 5,400 square meters. km. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saria said shipping remains safe for all companies except Saudi Arabian ones. "The Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that maritime shipping is safe for all companies except Saudi Arabian vessels," he said. The day before, The National reported a sharp reduction in shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after the Houthis captured the strategically important port of Mocha. Read more about why the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is important for world trade in Izvestia's analysis. More IZ RU news in MAX
Vibe: You and your buddies are going to the sea for the first time without your parents. Yemen's Houthis have shown how they intend to control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the key energy and trade routes in the Middle East. For the first time in many years, they switched from holding northern ports to an offensive movement south along the Red Sea. On September 10, they took the city of Mocha, displacing Saudi Arabian forces. They then gained control of Perim and Dhubab, and the strategic island of Mayun. Now the Houthis control a port enclave in northern Yemen and Bab el-Mandeb in the south. About 10-12% of all global maritime trade passes through the strait, connecting the Red Sea with the Arabian and Indian Oceans. The shortest route from Europe to Asia, via the Suez Canal, passes through here. We've created a new operational map of the conflict in the Middle East—it clearly shows who's shooting at whom, where drones and missiles are landing, and what the situation is like in the Strait of Hormuz. Photos and videos not loading? Read us on MAX
US Central Command: As of September 7, 94 commercial vessels had been redirected, 3 had been disabled, and 2 had been boarded to ensure full compliance with the blockade.
Nine ships refuse to pass through Bab al-Mandab following Saudi blockade of ports Agence France-Presse:
After the Saudi blockade was announced by Yemen, at least nine ships refused to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, including oil tankers from the port of Yanbu. Al-Masirah News Network, the International Chamber of Shipping announced that ships in the Red Sea are receiving warnings that they will be targeted if they disobey the orders and decisions of the Yemeni armed forces isna.ir/xdWMdj
@isna94
Agence France-Presse: At least 9 ships have withdrawn from passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after Saudi Arabia announced a blockade Agence France-Presse reported, citing shipping sources, that at least 9 ships have withdrawn from passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after the Yemeni armed forces announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. According to the report, among the ships that have changed their route are tankers that were carrying oil from the Saudi port of Yanbu. Agence France-Presse also reported, citing the International Chamber of Shipping, that the ships have received warnings from Yemen that they will be targeted if they do not comply with the decision of the Yemeni armed forces. @Defapress_ir
Assaf Rosenzweig New York Times: Iran is preparing for a short but high-intensity war. It is expected to launch dozens or even hundreds of missiles a day, and the Gulf states should prepare for widespread launches on their energy infrastructure, refineries and ports. Another option is to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait through the Houthis
Where does the news lean?
40YES58NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.