Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closedSeptember 30
Open$2.2Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Nine ships refuse to pass through Bab al-Mandab following Saudi blockade of ports Agence France-Presse:
After the Saudi blockade was announced by Yemen, at least nine ships refused to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, including oil tankers from the port of Yanbu. Al-Masirah News Network, the International Chamber of Shipping announced that ships in the Red Sea are receiving warnings that they will be targeted if they disobey the orders and decisions of the Yemeni armed forces isna.ir/xdWMdj
@isna94
Agence France-Presse: At least 9 ships have withdrawn from passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after Saudi Arabia announced a blockade Agence France-Presse reported, citing shipping sources, that at least 9 ships have withdrawn from passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after the Yemeni armed forces announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. According to the report, among the ships that have changed their route are tankers that were carrying oil from the Saudi port of Yanbu. Agence France-Presse also reported, citing the International Chamber of Shipping, that the ships have received warnings from Yemen that they will be targeted if they do not comply with the decision of the Yemeni armed forces. @Defapress_ir
Assaf Rosenzweig New York Times: Iran is preparing for a short but high-intensity war. It is expected to launch dozens or even hundreds of missiles a day, and the Gulf states should prepare for widespread launches on their energy infrastructure, refineries and ports. Another option is to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait through the Houthis
Where does the news lean?
18YES5NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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