Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closedOctober 31
Open$1.2Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO94¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 198 commercial vessels crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 198 commercial ships crossed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days - Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all international ships except for the ships of the Saudi enemy, which continues its blatant aggression and unjust and complete siege on the Yemeni people for 12 years.
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 198 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait in five days - Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all international vessels except for those of the Saudi enemy, which continues its blatant aggression and unjust blockade against the Yemeni people for 12 years.
Live: Data show 26 ships crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Thursday
Live: Commercial ships still transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Houthis take islands
Conflicts in Yemen have brought ship traffic in Bab al-Mandeb to a standstill. The escalating conflict on Yemen's western coast has brought ship traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the most sensitive points in global logistics, to a standstill, putting a vital maritime route at great risk. 10% of world maritime trade and 12% of global crude oil pass through here. The passage of oil and chemical tankers has decreased by 91%. Only 1 ship passed through in the last 24 hours, while total ship traffic decreased by 88% in 24 hours.
Will the Red Sea Be Blocked After Hormuz? Houthis Seize Key Strait in Bab el-Mandeb
The Houthis have established full control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Reuters reports. According to the agency, the Houthi takeover of the strategic island of Perim has allowed the movement to establish control over the entire strait. The Houthis also occupied the town of Dubab, located directly at the entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb. Furthermore, the movement reported taking control of six districts in the provinces of Taiz and Hodeidah, covering a total area of 5,400 square meters. km. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saria said shipping remains safe for all companies except Saudi Arabian ones. "The Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that maritime shipping is safe for all companies except Saudi Arabian vessels," he said. The day before, The National reported a sharp reduction in shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after the Houthis captured the strategically important port of Mocha. Read more about why the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is important for world trade in Izvestia's analysis. More IZ RU news in MAX
Where does the news lean?
18YES15NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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