US/Israel strikes IranJune 30
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$752Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
47 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US strikes are currently focused on military targets inside Iran in a joint Israeli-American operation-CNN
NOBBC News (World)99%match0¢
What we know about the joint US-Israel attack on Iran
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match0¢
Iran is launching missiles at Israel.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match0¢
Iran is launching ballistic missiles at Israel.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match0¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
NOCGTN Europe98%match0¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
NOSolid Intel 📡98%match0¢
INTEL: IRAN FIRST WAVE OF MISSILE, DRONE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL BEGAN
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match100¢
*IRAN FIRST WAVE OF MISSILE, DRONE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL BEGAN: MEHR
NODB News98%match0¢
*IRAN FIRST WAVE OF MISSILE, DRONE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL BEGAN: MEHR
YESReuters98%match100¢
[Replying to @Reuters] In June, the US joined an Israeli military campaign against Iranian nuclear installations, in the most direct American military action ever against the Islamic Republic >
YESThe Spectator Index98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iranian state television announces retaliation against Israel
NOReuters99%match0¢
Israel and US launch strikes on Iran
NOThe Spectator Index99%match0¢
BREAKING: Iran has launched missiles towards Israel
NOVisegrád 2498%match0¢
Pakistan attacks Afghanistan, Israel and the U.S. launch strikes against Iran.
NOBloomberg98%match0¢
Israel launches attack on Iran, with reported backing from the US Get the latest in our live blog:
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match0¢
*US-ISRAEL ATTACK ON IRAN EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS: NYT
NODB News98%match0¢
*US-ISRAEL ATTACK ON IRAN EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS: NYT
NOGlobe Eye News98%match0¢
BREAKING: US directly involved with Israel in attacks on Iran, official confirms.
NOAl Jazeera English98%match0¢
Sirens blared across Israel in warning of possible Iranian retaliatory missile attacks after Israel launched what it described as a ‘pre-emptive’ strike on Iran, declaring a state of emergency.
NOVisegrád 2499%match0¢
Israel launched “preemptive strikes” this morning against Iran.
NOAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match0¢
BREAKING: US-Israel strikes aim to dismantle Iran's security apparatus, US official LIVE updates:
NOFirst Squawk98%match0¢
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets have already been struck, second wave underway. - Presidential building and Minister of Intelligence among targets. - Blasts in Qom and Isfahan. - Israel and Iran both shut their airspace. - Israel declares state of emergency.…
NOCGTN America98%match0¢
Coordinated strikes by Israel, with reported participation by the U.S, hit targets in Tehran, sending plumes of smoke over the Iranian capital and triggering explosions that echoed across the city on February 28. Iranian state media reported blasts in multiple areas, while Fars…
NOThe Spectator Index98%match0¢
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets have already been struck, second wave underway. - Presidential building and Minister of Intelligence among targets. - Blasts in Qom and Isfahan. - Israel and Iran both shut their airspace. - Israel declares state of emergency.…
NOThe New York Times98%match21¢-100%
Breaking news: The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, according to American and Israeli officials, as large explosions resounded in Tehran.
NOAl Jazeera English98%match21¢-100%
Israel says it has launched a missile attack against Iran, while a US official has told Al Jazeera that the US took part in the strikes. Follow our LIVE coverage:
YESFirst Squawk99%match79¢+27%
US and Israel assessed that there was 'no path for negotiations' with Iran
NOThe Spectator Index98%match21¢-100%
BREAKING: The US and Israel assessed that there was 'no path for negotiations' with Iran, according to Al-Jazeera report.
NOAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match21¢-100%
BREAKING: US launches joint strikes with Israel on Iran, US official tells Al Jazeera LIVE updates:
NOThe Wall Street Journal98%match21¢-100%
The U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran, bringing war to the country for the second time in eight months. Follow live updates.
NOCNBC99%match21¢-100%
Israel says it has attacked Iran, declares state of emergency
NOunusual_whales98%match21¢-100%
BREAKING: According to the WSJ, the US and Israel are both joint attacking Iran right now in "preemptive attacks", the second time in eight months.
NOFirst Squawk99%match21¢-100%
Israeli public broadcaster: “This is a joint attack by Israel and the US"
NOFirst Squawk98%match21¢-100%
Israel launched a "preemptive" strike against Iran on Saturday morning "to remove threats to Israel," the Israeli Defense Ministry said in a statement. Sirens were sounded across Israel to warn the public to prepare for the possibility of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.
NOSolid Intel 📡98%match21¢-100%
INTEL: Strike on Iran described as joint U.S.–Israel operation Israel says campaign objectives achieved and declares nationwide state of emergency
NOdb98%match21¢-100%
CNN confirms *ISRAEL'S STRIKE ON IRAN COORDINATED WITH US: CNN [Quoting @tier10k]
>
NODB News99%match21¢-100%
*ISRAEL'S STRIKE ON IRAN COORDINATED WITH US: CNN
NOFirst Squawk99%match21¢-100%
Breaking news: Israel strikes Iran
NOThe Spectator Index98%match21¢-100%
BREAKING: Israeli media reports that a US-Israeli joint attack is underway on Iran
NOAcyn98%match21¢-100%
CNN: Breaking news… Israel has launched what it calls a preemptive strike on Iran
NODB News98%match21¢-100%
*US, ISRAEL CARRIED OUT JOINT ATTACK ON IRAN: N12
NOGlobe Eye News98%match21¢-100%
BREAKING: Israel officially launches attack on Iran.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match67¢+49%
While the US attempts to negotiate, do not be mistaken they are continuing to finalise preparations for a large strike on Iran. [Quoting @WarMonitor3]
>
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match32¢-100%
US and Israeli intelligence is clearly pointing towards some sort of joint Iranian proxy response if strikes go ahead on Iran, evacuations of embassies and Israeli defensive posturing is indicative of this.
YESFirst Squawk99%match68¢+47%
Israel had prepared for possible US strikes on Iran over the weekend, but by Thursday it became clear that any strike had been delayed to an unspecified — though likely near-term — date.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match67¢+49%
Israel prepared for US strike in Iran this weekend, but it was postponed-YNET
YESOSINTdefender98%match51¢+96%
Internal discussions between senior figures in the U.S. military and intelligence community have started to contemplate the possibility of supporting a fresh round of Israeli strikes on Iran, with deliberations focusing less on whether Israel could act than on how the United…
Where does the news lean?
11YES55NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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