US/Israel strikes Iran

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This hub tracks 26 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

February 28Reuters98%match100¢
[Replying to @Reuters] Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said >
March 31Reuters98%match0¢
[Replying to @Reuters] Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said >
December 31Reuters98%match0¢
[Replying to @Reuters] Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said >
February 28WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iranian officials were the first targets of US-Israeli strikes this morning-Reuters
March 31WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
BREAKING: Iranian officials were the first targets of US-Israeli strikes this morning-Reuters
December 31WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
BREAKING: Iranian officials were the first targets of US-Israeli strikes this morning-Reuters
February 28Status-6 (War & Military News)98%match100¢
New Israeli/US strikes reported in Kermanshah, western Iran.
March 31Status-6 (War & Military News)98%match0¢
New Israeli/US strikes reported in Kermanshah, western Iran.
December 31Status-6 (War & Military News)98%match0¢
New Israeli/US strikes reported in Kermanshah, western Iran.
February 28WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
US and Israeli strikes on air defence radars in Bandar Abbas Iran.
March 31WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US and Israeli strikes on air defence radars in Bandar Abbas Iran.
December 31WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US and Israeli strikes on air defence radars in Bandar Abbas Iran.
February 28Faytuks News98%match100¢
Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said. - Reuters
March 31Faytuks News98%match0¢
Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said. - Reuters
December 31Faytuks News98%match0¢
Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said. - Reuters
February 28Al Jazeera English98%match100¢
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the joint US‑Israel strikes on Iran aim to remove an ‘existential threat.’ He hailed the joint action as empowering the Iranian people to shape their own future and praised US President Donald Trump for his leadership.
March 31Al Jazeera English98%match0¢
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the joint US‑Israel strikes on Iran aim to remove an ‘existential threat.’ He hailed the joint action as empowering the Iranian people to shape their own future and praised US President Donald Trump for his leadership.
December 31Al Jazeera English98%match0¢
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the joint US‑Israel strikes on Iran aim to remove an ‘existential threat.’ He hailed the joint action as empowering the Iranian people to shape their own future and praised US President Donald Trump for his leadership.
February 28First Squawk98%match100¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
March 31First Squawk98%match0¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
December 31First Squawk98%match0¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
February 28WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
US strikes are currently focused on military targets inside Iran in a joint Israeli-American operation-CNN
March 31WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US strikes are currently focused on military targets inside Iran in a joint Israeli-American operation-CNN
December 31WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US strikes are currently focused on military targets inside Iran in a joint Israeli-American operation-CNN
June 30WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US strikes are currently focused on military targets inside Iran in a joint Israeli-American operation-CNN
February 28BBC News (World)99%match100¢
What we know about the joint US-Israel attack on Iran
March 31BBC News (World)99%match0¢
What we know about the joint US-Israel attack on Iran
December 31BBC News (World)99%match0¢
What we know about the joint US-Israel attack on Iran
June 30BBC News (World)99%match0¢
What we know about the joint US-Israel attack on Iran
June 30WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match0¢
Iran is launching missiles at Israel.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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