US/Israel strikes IranFebruary 28
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$5.9Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
50 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESReuters98%match100¢
[Replying to @Reuters] Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said >
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iranian officials were the first targets of US-Israeli strikes this morning-Reuters
YESStatus-6 (War & Military News)98%match100¢
New Israeli/US strikes reported in Kermanshah, western Iran.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
US and Israeli strikes on air defence radars in Bandar Abbas Iran.
YESFaytuks News98%match100¢
Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said. - Reuters
YESAl Jazeera English98%match100¢
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the joint US‑Israel strikes on Iran aim to remove an ‘existential threat.’ He hailed the joint action as empowering the Iranian people to shape their own future and praised US President Donald Trump for his leadership.
YESFirst Squawk98%match100¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
US strikes are currently focused on military targets inside Iran in a joint Israeli-American operation-CNN
YESBBC News (World)99%match100¢
What we know about the joint US-Israel attack on Iran
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match100¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
YESCGTN Europe98%match100¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
NOSolid Intel 📡98%match0¢
INTEL: IRAN FIRST WAVE OF MISSILE, DRONE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL BEGAN
YESCGTN Europe98%match100¢
*Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:* "My brothers and sisters, citizens of Israel, just an hour ago Israel and the USA launched an operation to remove the existential threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran. I thank our great friend President Donald Trump for his historic…
YESCGTN America98%match100¢
Warning sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and Haifa after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Tehran on Saturday, February 28. Israel has closed its airspace and declared a state of emergency. The Israeli military said it issued alerts amid fears of retaliatory strikes from Iran.
YESGlobe Eye News98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iran officially launches missiles at Israel.
YESReuters99%match100¢
Israel and US launch strikes on Iran
NOThe Spectator Index99%match0¢
BREAKING: Iran has launched missiles towards Israel
YESVisegrád 2498%match99¢+1%
Pakistan attacks Afghanistan, Israel and the U.S. launch strikes against Iran.
YESCGTN America98%match99¢+1%
Footage shows smoke rising over Tehran’s skyline after Israel said it carried out a strike on Iran on Saturday, February 28, with Iranian media reporting explosions in the capital. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that Washington had "started major combat operations in…
YESBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
Israel launches attack on Iran, with reported backing from the US Get the latest in our live blog:
YESDB News98%match99¢+1%
*US-ISRAEL ATTACK ON IRAN EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS: NYT
YESGlobe Eye News98%match99¢+1%
BREAKING: US directly involved with Israel in attacks on Iran, official confirms.
YESAl Jazeera English98%match99¢+1%
Sirens blared across Israel in warning of possible Iranian retaliatory missile attacks after Israel launched what it described as a ‘pre-emptive’ strike on Iran, declaring a state of emergency.
YESVisegrád 2499%match99¢+1%
Israel launched “preemptive strikes” this morning against Iran.
YESAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match99¢+1%
BREAKING: US-Israel strikes aim to dismantle Iran's security apparatus, US official LIVE updates:
YESFirst Squawk98%match99¢+1%
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets have already been struck, second wave underway. - Presidential building and Minister of Intelligence among targets. - Blasts in Qom and Isfahan. - Israel and Iran both shut their airspace. - Israel declares state of emergency.…
YESCGTN America99%match99¢+1%
Coordinated strikes by Israel, with reported participation by the U.S, hit targets in Tehran, sending plumes of smoke over the Iranian capital and triggering explosions that echoed across the city on February 28. Iranian state media reported blasts in multiple areas, while Fars…
YESThe Spectator Index98%match99¢+1%
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets have already been struck, second wave underway. - Presidential building and Minister of Intelligence among targets. - Blasts in Qom and Isfahan. - Israel and Iran both shut their airspace. - Israel declares state of emergency.…
YESThe New York Times98%match22¢+355%
Breaking news: The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, according to American and Israeli officials, as large explosions resounded in Tehran.
YESAl Jazeera English98%match22¢+355%
Israel says it has launched a missile attack against Iran, while a US official has told Al Jazeera that the US took part in the strikes. Follow our LIVE coverage:
YESAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match22¢+355%
BREAKING: US launches joint strikes with Israel on Iran, US official tells Al Jazeera LIVE updates:
YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match22¢+355%
The U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran, bringing war to the country for the second time in eight months. Follow live updates.
YESunusual_whales98%match22¢+355%
BREAKING: According to the WSJ, the US and Israel are both joint attacking Iran right now in "preemptive attacks", the second time in eight months.
YESCNN Breaking News98%match22¢+355%
Israel launches what it calls a "preemptive strike" against Iran, according to defense minister, as a state of emergency is declared across country.
YESFirst Squawk99%match22¢+355%
Israeli public broadcaster: “This is a joint attack by Israel and the US"
YESFirst Squawk98%match22¢+355%
Israel launched a "preemptive" strike against Iran on Saturday morning "to remove threats to Israel," the Israeli Defense Ministry said in a statement. Sirens were sounded across Israel to warn the public to prepare for the possibility of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.
YESBNO News98%match22¢+355%
BREAKING: Israel launches "pre-emptive strike" on Iran, defense minister says; explosions in Tehran
YESSolid Intel 📡98%match22¢+355%
INTEL: Strike on Iran described as joint U.S.–Israel operation Israel says campaign objectives achieved and declares nationwide state of emergency
YESdb98%match22¢+355%
CNN confirms *ISRAEL'S STRIKE ON IRAN COORDINATED WITH US: CNN [Quoting @tier10k]
>
YESDB News99%match22¢+355%
*ISRAEL'S STRIKE ON IRAN COORDINATED WITH US: CNN
YESFirst Squawk99%match22¢+355%
Israel bombs dozens of targets in Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match22¢+355%
Israel declares state of emergency throughout the country as strikes begin on Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match22¢+355%
Israel says it has launched an attack against Iran, as explosions reported in Tehran
YESFirst Squawk99%match22¢+355%
Breaking news: Israel strikes Iran
YESThe Spectator Index98%match22¢+355%
BREAKING: Israeli media reports that a US-Israeli joint attack is underway on Iran
YESAcyn98%match22¢+355%
CNN: Breaking news… Israel has launched what it calls a preemptive strike on Iran
YESThe Spectator Index98%match22¢+355%
BREAKING: Israel declares state of emergency throughout the country as strikes begin on Iran
YESDB News98%match22¢+355%
*US, ISRAEL CARRIED OUT JOINT ATTACK ON IRAN: N12
YESThe Spectator Index99%match22¢+355%
BREAKING: Israel bombs dozens of targets in Iran
YESSolid Intel 📡98%match22¢+355%
INTEL: ISRAEL LAUNCHED PREVENTIVE ATTACK ON IRAN
Where does the news lean?
66YES23NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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