US/Israel strikes IranFebruary 15

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$2.8MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOOSINTdefender98%match100¢
Internal discussions between senior figures in the U.S. military and intelligence community have started to contemplate the possibility of supporting a fresh round of Israeli strikes on Iran, with deliberations focusing less on whether Israel could act than on how the United…
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
Israel is demanding Iran should limit its ballistic missile ranges to 300km and below.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match94¢+6%
Will US/Israeli strikes take place on Iran by March 31st? Polymarket sees this at a 42 percent chance, with uncertainty around negotiations, despite this assets continue to pour into the region as infrastructure for a widespread strike builds. What do you think?
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match88¢+14%
Israel will carry out a unilateral strike on Iran if it crosses the ballistic missile red line-JP
NOPOLITICO98%match89¢+12%
Israel says Netanyahu will meet with Trump on Wednesday about Iran talks

Where does the news lean?

0YES5NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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