US/Israel strikes IranDecember 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$583Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
49 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOReuters98%match0¢
[Replying to @Reuters] Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said >
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
BREAKING: Iranian officials were the first targets of US-Israeli strikes this morning-Reuters
NOStatus-6 (War & Military News)98%match0¢
New Israeli/US strikes reported in Kermanshah, western Iran.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US and Israeli strikes on air defence radars in Bandar Abbas Iran.
NOFaytuks News98%match0¢
Iranian officials were the main target of the first wave of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, a source familiar with the matter said. - Reuters
NOAl Jazeera English98%match0¢
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the joint US‑Israel strikes on Iran aim to remove an ‘existential threat.’ He hailed the joint action as empowering the Iranian people to shape their own future and praised US President Donald Trump for his leadership.
NOFirst Squawk98%match0¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US strikes are currently focused on military targets inside Iran in a joint Israeli-American operation-CNN
NOBBC News (World)99%match0¢
What we know about the joint US-Israel attack on Iran
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match0¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
NOCGTN Europe98%match0¢
ISRAELI MILITARY: ISRAEL, US JOINT STRIKES ON IRAN TARGETED DOZENS OF MILITARY TARGETS
NOReuters99%match0¢
Israel and US launch strikes on Iran
NOVisegrád 2498%match0¢
Pakistan attacks Afghanistan, Israel and the U.S. launch strikes against Iran.
NOBloomberg98%match0¢
Israel launches attack on Iran, with reported backing from the US Get the latest in our live blog:
NODB News98%match0¢
*US-ISRAEL ATTACK ON IRAN EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS: NYT
NOGlobe Eye News98%match0¢
BREAKING: US directly involved with Israel in attacks on Iran, official confirms.
NOAl Jazeera English98%match0¢
Sirens blared across Israel in warning of possible Iranian retaliatory missile attacks after Israel launched what it described as a ‘pre-emptive’ strike on Iran, declaring a state of emergency.
NOVisegrád 2499%match0¢
Israel launched “preemptive strikes” this morning against Iran.
NOAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match0¢
BREAKING: US-Israel strikes aim to dismantle Iran's security apparatus, US official LIVE updates:
NOFirst Squawk98%match0¢
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets have already been struck, second wave underway. - Presidential building and Minister of Intelligence among targets. - Blasts in Qom and Isfahan. - Israel and Iran both shut their airspace. - Israel declares state of emergency.…
NOThe Spectator Index98%match0¢
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets have already been struck, second wave underway. - Presidential building and Minister of Intelligence among targets. - Blasts in Qom and Isfahan. - Israel and Iran both shut their airspace. - Israel declares state of emergency.…
NOThe New York Times98%match16¢-100%
Breaking news: The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, according to American and Israeli officials, as large explosions resounded in Tehran.
NOAl Jazeera English98%match16¢-100%
Israel says it has launched a missile attack against Iran, while a US official has told Al Jazeera that the US took part in the strikes. Follow our LIVE coverage:
NOThe Spectator Index98%match16¢-100%
BREAKING: The US and Israel assessed that there was 'no path for negotiations' with Iran, according to Al-Jazeera report.
NOAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match16¢-100%
BREAKING: US launches joint strikes with Israel on Iran, US official tells Al Jazeera LIVE updates:
NOThe Wall Street Journal98%match16¢-100%
The U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran, bringing war to the country for the second time in eight months. Follow live updates.
NOCNBC99%match16¢-100%
Israel says it has attacked Iran, declares state of emergency
NOunusual_whales98%match16¢-100%
BREAKING: According to the WSJ, the US and Israel are both joint attacking Iran right now in "preemptive attacks", the second time in eight months.
NOCNN Breaking News98%match16¢-100%
Israel launches what it calls a "preemptive strike" against Iran, according to defense minister, as a state of emergency is declared across country.
NOFirst Squawk99%match16¢-100%
Israeli public broadcaster: “This is a joint attack by Israel and the US"
NOFirst Squawk98%match16¢-100%
Israel launched a "preemptive" strike against Iran on Saturday morning "to remove threats to Israel," the Israeli Defense Ministry said in a statement. Sirens were sounded across Israel to warn the public to prepare for the possibility of an Iranian missile attack on Israel.
NOSolid Intel 📡98%match16¢-100%
INTEL: Strike on Iran described as joint U.S.–Israel operation Israel says campaign objectives achieved and declares nationwide state of emergency
NOdb98%match16¢-100%
CNN confirms *ISRAEL'S STRIKE ON IRAN COORDINATED WITH US: CNN [Quoting @tier10k]
>
NODB News99%match16¢-100%
*ISRAEL'S STRIKE ON IRAN COORDINATED WITH US: CNN
NOFirst Squawk98%match16¢-100%
Israel declares state of emergency throughout the country as strikes begin on Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match84¢+19%
The strike on Iran is described as a joint Israeli-American operation. Source: N12
NOFirst Squawk99%match16¢-100%
Breaking news: Israel strikes Iran
NOThe Spectator Index98%match16¢-100%
BREAKING: Israeli media reports that a US-Israeli joint attack is underway on Iran
NOAcyn98%match16¢-100%
CNN: Breaking news… Israel has launched what it calls a preemptive strike on Iran
NOThe Spectator Index98%match16¢-100%
BREAKING: Israel declares state of emergency throughout the country as strikes begin on Iran
NODB News98%match16¢-100%
*US, ISRAEL CARRIED OUT JOINT ATTACK ON IRAN: N12
NOOSINTdefender98%match16¢-100%
Israel is confirmed to have launched “preemptive strikes” this morning against Iran.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match26¢-100%
While the US attempts to negotiate, do not be mistaken they are continuing to finalise preparations for a large strike on Iran. [Quoting @WarMonitor3]
>
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match25¢-100%
US and Israeli intelligence is clearly pointing towards some sort of joint Iranian proxy response if strikes go ahead on Iran, evacuations of embassies and Israeli defensive posturing is indicative of this.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match25¢-100%
Israel prepared for US strike in Iran this weekend, but it was postponed-YNET
YESVisegrád 2498%match64¢+56%
The likelihood of U.S. or Israel to strike Iran before the end of this year now stands at 64% on @Polymarket In recent days, the U.S. had added nearly 80 new war planes to the Middle East: 18 × F-35A
36 × F-16
12 × F-22
2 × E-3 AWACS
Up to 18 × F-15E
NOOSINTdefender98%match39¢-100%
Internal discussions between senior figures in the U.S. military and intelligence community have started to contemplate the possibility of supporting a fresh round of Israeli strikes on Iran, with deliberations focusing less on whether Israel could act than on how the United…
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match39¢-100%
STRIKE OR DEAL President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in December he would back Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile program if nuclear talks fail, sources say. U.S. military and intelligence officials are now discussing how Washington…
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match61¢+64%
US have started to deliberate whether they will support Israeli strikes against the Iranian ballistic missile program. [Quoting @WarMonitor3]
> President Trump told PM Netanyahu in December he would back Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile program if no U.S.-Iran deal is reached-CBS
Where does the news lean?
6YES73NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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