How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?37%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$2Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrats Lead In Maine And New Hampshire Senate Races (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrats Lead In Texas, Ohio, Alaska Senate Races (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrats Lead In Texas, Iowa, Michigan Senate Races (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrat Sherrod Brown Up 8 Points In Ohio Senate Race (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Progressive El-Sayed Up 4 Points In Michigan Senate Race (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
Where does the news lean?
8YES0NO15neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
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