How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?30%
Open$13Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The results of three independent polls by CNN, the Associated Press-Nork and Quinnipiac University show that US President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 34, 33 and 32 percent, a level that has been described as the lowest since the end of his first term and the January 6, 2021 incident. In the CNN poll, 73 percent of respondents said that Trump has not paid enough attention to the country's most important problems. In a report reviewing these polls, the Rolling Stone website wrote that Trump's decline in popularity has coincided with the economic consequences of the war with the Iranian regime and increasing dissatisfaction with the performance of his administration. The report also points to another poll, according to which 23 percent of people who voted for Trump in the 2024 election now regret their choice.
YESHuffPost Politics99%match7¢-29%
The CNN data chief spotted how Trump's polling numbers have hit record lows compared to his predecessors ahead of his address to Congress.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match93¢+2%
TRUMP OVERALL APPROVAL HOLDS AT PRESIDENCY LOW OF 38%, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
NOCGTN America98%match93¢+2%
TRUMP OVERALL APPROVAL HOLDS AT PRESIDENCY LOW OF 38%, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
YESTIME98%match7¢-29%
One year into President Donald Trump's second term, a key demographic that helped him win the White House is abandoning him in droves.
Where does the news lean?
7YES2NO37neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
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