How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?35%
Open$83Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 25% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES25¢
NO76¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
TRUMP APPROVAL FALLS TO 33%, A SECOND-TERM LOW, PER REUTERS/IPSOS • • - Approve: 33%, down from 35% earlier this month • - Disapprove: 64% • - 80% expect US involvement in Iran to continue for an extended period, including 87% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans • - 16% expect the conflict to end in a few weeks • • The reading ties the lowest level of Trump's prior term, reached in December 2017. The four-day online survey gathered responses from 1,166 US adults with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
YESReuters94%match37¢-32%
Trump’s Presidential Job Approval Falls to 35% From 37% Last Month, According to Reuters/Ipsos Poll
The results of three independent polls by CNN, the Associated Press-Nork and Quinnipiac University show that US President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 34, 33 and 32 percent, a level that has been described as the lowest since the end of his first term and the January 6, 2021 incident. In the CNN poll, 73 percent of respondents said that Trump has not paid enough attention to the country's most important problems. In a report reviewing these polls, the Rolling Stone website wrote that Trump's decline in popularity has coincided with the economic consequences of the war with the Iranian regime and increasing dissatisfaction with the performance of his administration. The report also points to another poll, according to which 23 percent of people who voted for Trump in the 2024 election now regret their choice.
Trump's approval rating at 34%... lowest level since the January 6 storming of Congress
President Trump's approval rating hits a record low of 34%; 74% say military action against Iran is "not worth the cost," according to a CNN poll.
President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to 34%, its lowest point this term, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. • • More Here →
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Hits New Low • • US President Donald Trump’s approval rating has hit a new low, according to The New York Times polling average this week, surging to 58 percent.
YESThe Hill99%match31¢-19%
Why young voters are moving away from Trump
YESHuffPost Politics98%match30¢-17%
The president’s unpopularity has hit a five-year high, according to a new poll.
YESTIME98%match30¢-17%
When Trump last addressed Congress, his approval rating was near a career high. Now it's near record lows.
YESHuffPost Politics99%match30¢-17%
The CNN data chief spotted how Trump's polling numbers have hit record lows compared to his predecessors ahead of his address to Congress.
YESReuters98%match27¢-7%
Trump's immigration approval hits new low, according to Reuters/Ipsos poll
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match27¢-7%
TRUMP OVERALL APPROVAL HOLDS AT PRESIDENCY LOW OF 38%, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
NOCGTN America98%match73¢+3%
TRUMP OVERALL APPROVAL HOLDS AT PRESIDENCY LOW OF 38%, ACCORDING TO REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
YESPolymarket98%match28¢-11%
[Replying to @unusual_whales] @unusual_whales 36% chance unemployment reaches 5% in 2026. > Trump: I could have the dollar’s value go and up down like a yo-yo
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match33¢-24%
Trump's approval is at the lowest its been so far clocking in at 37%
NOCGTN Europe99%match65¢+15%
TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING SLIPS TO 41% FROM 42% EARLIER IN JANUARY-POLL
YESTIME99%match35¢-29%
As his first year back in office ends, Trump is facing backlash on a number of fronts and his job approval is near its lowest-ever levels.
YESAl Jazeera English98%match35¢-29%
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
YESAl Jazeera English98%match35¢-29%
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
Where does the news lean?
28YES3NO54neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
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