Fed Decision in June?No change
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$43.1Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
An unusually divided Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady as policymakers grappled with the policy impact of persistent inflation and awaited a looming leadership transition at the central bank. • • In what may have been Chair Jerome Powell’s final meeting at the helm, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the benchmark funds rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. Markets had been pricing in a 100% chance of no change. • • However, the meeting saw a dramatic turn. • • More:
FOMC decision: No change in rates as expected •
Investors See No Change In Rates for the Rest of the Year -- WSJ
FOMC rate decision: No change •
YESFinancialJuice98%match30¢+233%
Traders fully price in Fed rate cut by July vs June previously.
NOCNBC98%match70¢-100%
'Expectation of Fed rate cut in June will support share prices,' says @cfraresearch's @StovallCFRA
NOFirst Squawk98%match66¢-100%
US Fed fund futures rise up to 5 ticks; markets price in 80% chance of June rate cut
NOPolymarket99%match53¢-100%
NEW IN: There's now an 82% chance the Fed cuts rates by their meeting on June 17th.
YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match44¢+127%
Exclusive: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she doesn’t see any need to change interest rates for several months after the central bank cut rates at its last three meetings
YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match44¢+127%
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack says she doesn’t see any need to change interest rates for several months
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match44¢+127%
FED’S HAMMACK IS INFLATION-WARY AND PREFERS HOLDING RATES STEADY INTO THE SPRING Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said there is no need to change interest rates for several months after the Fed cut rates by a total of 0.75 percentage points over three meetings. She opposed…
YESFirst Squawk98%match44¢+127%
FED'S HAMMACK SEES RATES ON HOLD FOR 'SOME PERIOD OF TIME'
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match44¢+127%
FED'S HAMMACK SEES RATES ON HOLD FOR 'SOME PERIOD OF TIME'
Where does the news lean?
10YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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