Fed Decision in June?25 bps increase
ResolvedOutcome: No$31.0Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Traders are maintaining their expectations that the Federal Reserve will not alter interest rates before the conclusion of 2026, following the Labor Department's report of a significant rise in consumer prices for March. Current market pricing in interest-rate futures contracts suggests approximately a one-in-three probability of a rate cut by the Fed's December meeting. • • More Here →
NOFinancialJuice98%match98¢+2%
Traders fully price in Fed rate cut by July vs June previously.
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match2¢-100%
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match98¢+2%
REUTERS POLL-US FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT FED FUNDS RATE BY 25 BPS TO 3.25-3.50% RANGE BY END-JUNE, SAID 60 OF 101 ECONOMISTS (NO CONSENSUS IN JANUARY POLL) REUTERS POLL-MAIN RISK IS FEDERAL RESERVE WILL SET MONETARY POLICY TOO LOOSE UNDER KEVIN WARSH, SAID 49 OF 53 ECONOMISTS
NOCNBC98%match98¢+2%
'Expectation of Fed rate cut in June will support share prices,' says @cfraresearch's @StovallCFRA
NOFirst Squawk98%match98¢+2%
FED’S HAMMACK: INTEREST RATES COULD REMAIN ON HOLD FOR EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE ECONOMIC DATA IS ASSESSED; FLEXIBILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED TO RAISE RATES IF NEEDED.
NOunusual_whales98%match98¢+2%
Fed’s Hammock: Fed to hold rates.
NOFirst Squawk99%match98¢+2%
US Fed fund futures rise up to 5 ticks; markets price in 80% chance of June rate cut
NOPolymarket99%match97¢+3%
NEW IN: There's now an 82% chance the Fed cuts rates by their meeting on June 17th.
Where does the news lean?
1YES8NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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