Fed Decision in June?
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This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
BREAKING: The Fed is no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026 after today's Fed decision. • • The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year just fell to a new low of 44%. • • For the first time since 1992, four Fed members dissented today's decision.
BREAKING: The Fed is no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026 after today's Fed decision. • • The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year just fell to a new low of 44%. • • For the first time since 1992, four Fed members dissented today's decision.
An unusually divided Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady as policymakers grappled with the policy impact of persistent inflation and awaited a looming leadership transition at the central bank. • • In what may have been Chair Jerome Powell’s final meeting at the helm, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the benchmark funds rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. Markets had been pricing in a 100% chance of no change. • • However, the meeting saw a dramatic turn. • • More:
FOMC decision: No change in rates as expected •
Traders are maintaining their expectations that the Federal Reserve will not alter interest rates before the conclusion of 2026, following the Labor Department's report of a significant rise in consumer prices for March. Current market pricing in interest-rate futures contracts suggests approximately a one-in-three probability of a rate cut by the Fed's December meeting. • • More Here →
Fed’s Powell says no need to hike interest rates now — officials should look past higher energy prices
TRADERS EXPECT THE FED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES AND HAVE PRICED IN A 20 BASIS POINT INCREASE FOR THE YEAR 2026.
US interest rate futures see 21 BPS of easing in 2026, unchanged from prior Fed statement.
FOMC rate decision: No change •
Fed Governor Stephen Miran has said the central bank should cut interest rates by more than one percentage point in 2026. Do you agree?
Fed Governor Stephen Miran has said the central bank should cut interest rates by more than one percentage point in 2026. Do you agree?
Fed's Goolsbee: Rates can still go down but need to see progress on inflation.
Fed's Goolsbee: Rates can still go down but need to see progress on inflation.
Fed's Schmid: Additional Fed rate cuts might permit higher inflation to continue for a longer time. Current inflation rate indicates demand remains strong and surpasses improvements in supply.
*TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
*TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
Traders fully price in Fed rate cut by July vs June previously.
Traders fully price in Fed rate cut by July vs June previously.
Traders fully price in Fed rate cut by July vs June previously.
Traders fully price in Fed rate cut by July vs June previously.
Traders fully price in Fed rate cut by July vs June previously.
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
REUTERS POLL-US FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT FED FUNDS RATE BY 25 BPS TO 3.25-3.50% RANGE BY END-JUNE, SAID 60 OF 101 ECONOMISTS (NO CONSENSUS IN JANUARY POLL) REUTERS POLL-MAIN RISK IS FEDERAL RESERVE WILL SET MONETARY POLICY TOO LOOSE UNDER KEVIN WARSH, SAID 49 OF 53 ECONOMISTS
REUTERS POLL-US FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT FED FUNDS RATE BY 25 BPS TO 3.25-3.50% RANGE BY END-JUNE, SAID 60 OF 101 ECONOMISTS (NO CONSENSUS IN JANUARY POLL) REUTERS POLL-MAIN RISK IS FEDERAL RESERVE WILL SET MONETARY POLICY TOO LOOSE UNDER KEVIN WARSH, SAID 49 OF 53 ECONOMISTS
REUTERS POLL-US FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT FED FUNDS RATE BY 25 BPS TO 3.25-3.50% RANGE BY END-JUNE, SAID 60 OF 101 ECONOMISTS (NO CONSENSUS IN JANUARY POLL) REUTERS POLL-MAIN RISK IS FEDERAL RESERVE WILL SET MONETARY POLICY TOO LOOSE UNDER KEVIN WARSH, SAID 49 OF 53 ECONOMISTS
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.