Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?↑ 6.50%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$7Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOReuters99%match46¢-100%
US Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Falls 7 Bps to 6.35 PCT in April 17 Week - MBA
FREDDIE MAC: 15-YR FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE AVERAGED 5.74% AS OF APRIL 9TH • • FREDDIE MAC: US 30-YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE AVERAGES 6.37% IN APRIL 9TH WEEK VS 6.46% PRIOR WEEK. FALL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE THE IRAN WAR. - FINANCIALJUICE ...
MORTGAGE RATES CLIMBED FOR THE FIFTH STRAIGHT WEEK AS THE WAR IN IRAN WEIGHED ON THE US HOUSING MARKET, PER NYT ...
Buying a home just got more expensive as the Iran war drives up mortgage rates
US mortgage rates climbed for a 4th straight week, up to 6.57% on average, rising to its highest level since August - MBA • • People who locked in a 30-year fixed mortgage at 2.69% in 2021
The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose last week to its highest level since August, reaching 6.57% for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. • • More Here →
Weekly mortgage refinance demand is down more than 40% in the past month. • Mortgage demand from both homeowners and potential home buyers is dropping due to higher mortgage rates and concern over the war with Iran.
YESReuters99%match79¢+27%
US Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rises 14 Bps to 6.57 PCT, Highest Since August 2025, in March 27 Week - MBA
US fixed 30-year mortgage rate jumps to six-month high as Iran war drags on
US 30-year fixed rate mortgage averages 6.38% March 26th week, highest since September 4th, 2025 week, vs 6.22% prior week - Freddie Mac.
YESAPws99%match67¢+49%
MCLEAN, Va. (AP) — The average long-term US mortgage rate climbs to its highest level in more than six months, according to Freddie Mac
U.S. 30-YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE AVERAGES 6.38 PCT MARCH 26 WEEK, HIGHEST SINCE SEPT 4, 2025 WEEK, VS 6.22 PCT PRIOR WEEK -FREDDIE MAC
Mortgage Rates Rise for Fourth Straight Week -- WSJ
YESReuters99%match67¢+49%
U.S. 30-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage Averages 6.38 PCT March 26 Week, Highest Since Sept 4, 2025 Week, vs 6.22 PCT Prior Week -Freddie Mac
Mortgage demand drops 10.5% as the 30-year fixed rate hits 6.43%, highest since October 2025, per MBA data. • • Refinance demand fell 15% week over week. Purchase applications down 5%. • • MBA's Joel Kan: "Higher mortgage rates, coupled with affordability constraints and economic uncertainty, pushed some potential homebuyers to the sidelines."
YESReuters99%match86¢+16%
US Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rises 13 Bps in March 20 Week to 6.43 PCT, Highest Since October - MBA
Where does the news lean?
16YES2NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
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