Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.90% (LOW) by December 31, 2026? Odds fell to 38% on Jul 13, 2026

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Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.90% (LOW) by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 46.5¢ to 37.5¢ (-9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from telegraph.co.uk.

How did the odds move?

At match46.5¢
+5m48¢
+30m44¢
+1h37.5¢
+24h54.5¢
1h move-9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Notelegraph.co.uk99%match
Mortgage rates fall at fastest pace in almost two years

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 20% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES20¢
NO80¢

Vol$6K

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Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.90% (LOW) by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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