Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Qatar

OpenVol$663KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES4¢
NO96¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESjoongang.co.kr95%match4¢
Qatar Mediates Resumption of U.S.-Iran Dialogue… ‘Normalization of Hormuz Top Priority’
NOalarabiya92%match87¢+10%
Iranian Foreign Ministry: . The final announcement from Tehran and Muscat regarding Hormuz is in its final stages. . There are no plans for Araqchi or the Speaker of Parliament to travel to Qatar or Pakistan soon.
YESapnews.com97%match12¢-67%
Live: Qatar mediating talks between US and Iran
YESsedaily.com97%match11¢-64%
US and Iran Resume Negotiations Gaining Momentum… Qatar “Draft Agreement Prepared”
NOalarabiya93%match89¢+8%
Live from Al Arabiya | Iran rejects any proposals that do not guarantee "control over the Strait of Hormuz," and Qatar confirms: No direct talks are scheduled between Washington and Tehran.
YESifre.com94%match11¢-64%
US GOVTS – Treasuries bounce, oil flips lower as Qatar says US-Iran talks in advanced stage
NOyna.co.kr96%match89¢+8%
Qatar: "No plans for direct talks with U.S. and Iran... Contact through mediators"
NOAl Arabiya97%match89¢+8%
Qatar: No plans for direct negotiations between Iran and the US at present.
NOzerohedge95%match89¢+8%
*QATAR: NOTHING IN BOOKS WHEN IT COMES TO US-IRAN DIRECT TALKS • • oh
NOnournews_ir97%match84¢+14%
Exclusive | Sources clarify to Noor News: Rumors of restarted #negotiations in #Geneva, #Doha, or #Islamabad are untrue; Iran currently has no plans for a delegation to visit Pakistan or Qatar. The source also pointed out that recent actions by the #US Treasury Department have disrupted the previously smooth dialogue process between #Iran and Oman.
NOiranintlbrk92%match84¢+14%
Noornews reported, citing an informed official, that the claims made about the Iranian delegation's travel plan to Pakistan or Qatar to continue negotiations are "pure lies." According to the official, there are no plans to send a negotiating delegation to these countries.
NOnournews_ir96%match84¢+14%
Exclusive: An informed official told Noornews: The claim of resuming #negotiations in #Geneva, #Doha or #Islamabad is not true, and there are no plans for the Iranian delegation to travel to Pakistan or Qatar. The recent action of the #US Treasury Department has challenged the relatively successful process of #Iran-Oman talks.
NOIranian Media92%match84¢+14%
Informed official: The claim of the Iranian delegation's trip to continue the talks is not true An informed official, rejecting the atmosphere created by some regional media about the Iranian delegation's plan to travel to Pakistan or Qatar to continue the talks, emphasized: There are no plans for such trips. He also said: The process of talks between Iran and Oman, which had reached appropriate results, was exposed to destruction by the recent provocative action of the US Treasury Department. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
NOaljazeera.com98%match85¢+13%
Live: Gulf tensions rise as Iran strikes Qatar, disrupting mediation efforts
NOaljazeera.com99%match85¢+13%
Live: Qatar mediator role in question after Iran strikes
YESalmayadeenlive99%match18¢-78%
Iran: Tasnim, citing a source: Qatar's presence at the talks comes within the framework of its role as a mediator and to exchange views between Iran and the rest of the countries in the region.
NOAl Arabiya99%match87¢+10%
Al Arabiya sources: Qatar prefers Switzerland to host the next round of talks
YESiranintlbrk99%match19¢-79%
Three sources familiar with the ongoing efforts to restore the ceasefire told CBS News that "active talks" between Washington and Tehran are continuing, although these negotiations are being conducted indirectly and with Qatar's mediation.
NOfarsnews_agency99%match50¢+92%
Gharibabadi: No technical meetings planned for this week Although consultations with Qatar, including on following up on the implementation of the other party's commitments, are ongoing as usual, some media reports that technical talks by working groups will be held in Doha cannot be confirmed.
NOIran Semi-Official Fars99%match50¢+92%
FWD from Fars International and Foreign Policy: Gharibabadi: Technical meetings are not planned for this week Kazem Gharibabadi, the chief negotiator of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Deputy Minister of Legal and International Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in response to reporters' questions about the working group negotiations within the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding to End the Imposed War, said: Technical meetings of the working groups are not planned for this week. Gharibabadi clarified: Although consultations with Qatar, including regarding the follow-up to the implementation of the other party's commitments, are ongoing as usual, the news from some media outlets that technical talks of the working groups will be held in Doha cannot be confirmed. Gharibabadi added: The first round of technical talks within the framework of the designated working groups will be held when the conditions are met and after an agreement is reached on its date and location, and consultations in this regard are continuing through intermediary countries. @FarsNewsInt - Link

Where does the news lean?

133YES35NO80neutraltrailing 24h

Signal flow leans NO at 66% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

What would make this resolve YES?

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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