Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Odds fell to 10% on Jul 10, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 19¢ to 9.5¢ (-9.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintlbrk. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match19¢
+5m19¢
+30m12.5¢
+1h9.5¢
+24h17.5¢
1h move-9.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 10, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 18.5¢ → 9.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from sharghdaily

What moved the odds?

Yesiranintlbrk99%match
Three sources familiar with the ongoing efforts to restore the ceasefire told CBS News that "active talks" between Washington and Tehran are continuing, although these negotiations are being conducted indirectly and with Qatar's mediation.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$763K

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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.