Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Pakistan
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Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
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20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry: The speculation that Asim Munir traveled to Tehran as Trump's envoy is incorrect The economic war against Iran is part of the stalemate between Tehran and Washington that must be resolved through diplomacy We are not aware of any specific country's desire to join Iran in the "Mecca Agreement" We are not subject to unilateral sanctions against Tehran / Entebbe
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Pakistan is trying to use its capacities to play the role of mediator. To say that there was a specific and special message involved, no; it does not mean that, but this trip was in continuation of Pakistan's role as a mediator. The issue of Iran-US negotiations is important for the Pakistani side; because they played an important role in shaping the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. We are truly sorry that for the umpteenth time, the breach of treaty and breach of obligations by the US has caused the institution of mediation to be undermined; something that happened before in relation to Oman and we are now witnessing it in relation to Pakistan.
Baghaei: Pakistan is pursuing a mediating role between Iran and the U.S. • • Foreign Ministry Spokesman: • • Pakistan is seeking to use its capacities to mediate between Iran and the United States. This visit did not carry any special message; rather, it took place as part of Pakistan’s ongoing role in helping shape the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. • • Unfortunately, the repeated breaches of commitments by the United States, as previously occurred regarding Oman, have once again undermined the institution of mediation—this time in the context of Pakistan.
Journalist Abdul Rahman Hayat: Pakistan has withdrawn its support for mediation and entered into military alliances with peace-supporting countries to bolster regional security because it feels that Iran is not serious and does not abide by agreements. Islamabad is unwilling to seek new solutions and believes Washington and Tehran must return to the Memorandum of Understanding.
Gharibabadi: There are no negotiations Deputy Minister for Legal and International Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The news of Pakistan inviting the Foreign Minister and the Speaker of the Parliament is true, but the planning has not been finalized. The path of understanding is between Iran and Oman, and no negotiations with the United States have taken place during this period. The decision to enter the second stage has not yet been made and is under review. Invitations from the Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Foreign Minister to travel, including from Pakistan, have been made and are being made. We have had these exchanges with Pakistan at different levels; both their officials traveled to Iran and our officials went to Pakistan; especially after the formation of talks and negotiations, in which Pakistan also acted as a mediator. Pakistan has made such invitations, but the final planning has not been done yet. The US claims that it is negotiating with Iran is not true and there are no negotiations. Of course, we have received messages from the US. The messages received indicate that the US is fully prepared to return to its commitments. These messages have been received and in fact the Americans themselves have announced it. But whether we have decided to enter the second phase or not, I must say that this decision has not been made yet and is under consideration, given the complexities and difficulties that I mentioned.
Ghoribabadi: We have received messages from the US indicating readiness to return to commitments Deputy Minister of Legal and International Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the "Diplomacy Desk" of IRNA: We have not had any negotiations with the US in recent days. The news of Pakistan inviting the Foreign Minister and the Speaker of the Parliament is true, but the planning has not been finalized. The path of understanding is between Iran and Oman, and no negotiations with the US have taken place during this period. The decision on entering the second stage has not yet been made and is under review. Invitations have been made and are being made from the Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Foreign Minister to make a trip, including from Pakistan. We have had these interactions with Pakistan at different levels; Both their officials traveled to Iran and our officials went to Pakistan, especially after the formation of talks and negotiations, in which Pakistan also acted as a mediator. Pakistan has made such invitations, but the final planning has not yet been done. The fact that the US claims to be negotiating with Iran is not true and there are no negotiations. Of course, we have received messages from the US. IRNA: What was the focus of these messages? The messages received indicate that the US is fully prepared to return to its commitments. These messages have been received and in fact the Americans themselves have announced it. But whether we have decided to enter the second phase or not, I must say that this decision has not yet been made and is under review, given the complexities and difficulties that I mentioned. @IRNA_1313
Pakistan also rejected Trump's claim about alleged talks While Trump had claimed that "negotiations with Iran will begin on Monday," Pakistani officials have announced that "no specific date or location has yet been finalized for direct talks between Iran and the United States." @IRIBNEWS_COM
Pakistan also rejected Trump's lie While Trump had claimed that "negotiations with Iran will begin on Monday," Pakistani officials have announced that "no specific date or location has yet been finalized for direct talks between Iran and the United States." This is while Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is in Iraq for the Arbaeen pilgrimage. @iribnews [in reply to: [image only]]
Pakistan also rejected Trump's claim about the alleged talks. While Trump had claimed that "negotiations with Iran will begin on Monday," Pakistani officials have announced that "no specific date or location has yet been finalized for direct talks between Iran and the United States."
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The mediator in the discussions related to Iran and the US is Pakistan. Qatar also helps in cases where necessary. We have very friendly relations with China and very close cooperation is established in all areas of mutual interest. Like us, China is concerned about the escalation of America's destructive and belligerent unilateralism. It is also concerned about the escalation of conflict and insecurity in the region. Therefore, our Chinese friends are trying and using their good efforts to prevent the situation from escalating. In this regard, China is also helping, like a number of other countries; but to say that we have added a new mediator to the existing mediators is not the case in the strict sense of the word.
Mediator Pakistan says US-Iran talks ongoing as foes trade attacks
Exclusive | Sources clarify to Noor News: Rumors of restarted #negotiations in #Geneva, #Doha, or #Islamabad are untrue; Iran currently has no plans for a delegation to visit Pakistan or Qatar. The source also pointed out that recent actions by the #US Treasury Department have disrupted the previously smooth dialogue process between #Iran and Oman.
Noornews reported, citing an informed official, that the claims made about the Iranian delegation's travel plan to Pakistan or Qatar to continue negotiations are "pure lies." According to the official, there are no plans to send a negotiating delegation to these countries.
Exclusive: An informed official told Noornews: The claim of resuming #negotiations in #Geneva, #Doha or #Islamabad is not true, and there are no plans for the Iranian delegation to travel to Pakistan or Qatar. The recent action of the #US Treasury Department has challenged the relatively successful process of #Iran-Oman talks.
Informed official: The claim of the Iranian delegation's trip to continue the talks is not true An informed official, rejecting the atmosphere created by some regional media about the Iranian delegation's plan to travel to Pakistan or Qatar to continue the talks, emphasized: There are no plans for such trips. He also said: The process of talks between Iran and Oman, which had reached appropriate results, was exposed to destruction by the recent provocative action of the US Treasury Department. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
Pakistan: Negotiations between the Americans and Iranians on de-escalation and the Strait of Hormuz are "ongoing" (AFP)
Live: Iranian official meets mediators in Pakistan in effort to salvage peace talks
Live: Iran official begins meeting with mediators in Pakistan - AP
From attempts to calm the escalation in the Gulf Sources for Al-Arabiya Channel: The Iranian interior minister met with the Pakistani army commander ahead of a new round of talks, while Islamabad is working to mediate between Iran and the US; according to AP, Iranian representatives are expected to arrive in Pakistan for talks tomorrow.
*IRAN OFFICIAL BEGAN MEETING WITH MEDIATORS IN PAKISTAN TUES: AP
Where does the news lean?
222YES31NO93neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 74% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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