Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Odds jumped to 20% on Jul 26, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 11.3¢ to 20.2¢ (+8.9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from alarabiya. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match11.3¢
+5m11.3¢
+30m16.6¢
+1h20.2¢
+24h18.8¢
1h move+8.9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Yesalarabiya97%match
A source told Al Arabiya that Iran confirmed to Pakistan its readiness to continue negotiations in Geneva, Doha, or Islamabad.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$399K

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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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