Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Odds jumped to 72% on Sep 16, 2026

OpenMove

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? On , the market’s odds jumped from 61.9¢ to 72.4¢ (+10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from fnn.jp.

How did the odds move?

At match61.9¢
+5m68.1¢
+30m70.8¢
+1h72.4¢
1h move+10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralfnn.jp94%match
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% for the first time in 3 years and 2 months, raising the policy rate to 3.75-4%. Chairman Warsh stated the goal was to "achieve price stability more quickly."

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 67% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES67¢
NO33¢

Vol$124K

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Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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