Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Odds fell to 15% on Sep 16, 2026

Here are the key points from the Federal Open Market Committee statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years, saying the goal is to bring inflation back to its 2% target "sooner." Policymakers also expect another rate hike before the end of the year and have removed their projections for a rate cut next year. They now believe the Fed will keep interest rates steady through 2027. During his press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly emphasized the strength of the economy and said today's rate hike removes "a dose of easing" from monetary policy. Warsh declined to answer questions about whether he had recently been in contact with US President Donald Trump. The Fed's decision was unanimous, and the projections of committee members, known as the "dot chart," show strong support for at least one more rate hike, with 16 officials believing it is likely. Yields on two-year US Treasury notes rose to their highest level since 2024 following the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy and Warsh's press conference, while longer-term yields held steady or declined, in stark contrast to the day of the last interest rate decision. Stocks fell, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 1%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%. #Arabic_Business