When will Tesla release Optimus?December 31
Open$19Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Tesla says FSD v15 is a ‘step-change,’ Optimus sells in 2027
Latest developments in Tesla's Optimus: The first batch of manufacturing robots will be used for data training and feature development.
Tesla published five new patents yesterday, all for the Optimus robotic hand and arm: • • 1. Covers cable routing through the wrist joint. • • The key innovation is that cables are arranged in a lateral stack on the forearm side and transition to a vertical stack on the hand side, minimising the perpendicular distance between a control cable and the axis of rotation. • • This prevents cable tension from fighting wrist movement. • • WO 2026/080687
YESBenzinga99%match16¢-81%
[Replying to @Teslaconomics] @Teslaconomics > Tesla plans to unveil Optimus Gen 3 in Q1 and the first production line is already underway, with production planned before the end of 2026. The team is aiming to build a capacity of 1M Tesla Bots per year!
Where does the news lean?
1YES4NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
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