Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 33% on Jul 22, 2026
Open
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 22¢ to 32.5¢ (+10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters.
How did the odds move?
22¢
22¢
31¢
32.5¢
+10.5 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
NeutralReuters94%match
Tesla Inc: First-Generation Production Lines for Optimus Are Being Installed in Anticipation of Production in 2026
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
$19K
Follow this market
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for When will Tesla release Optimus? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.