Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Sumy

OpenVol$66KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 6% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES6¢
NO94¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOUkrainian Media92%match92¢+2%
Russian troops failed new offensive attempts in Sumy region, - ISW On July 19 and 20, the Russian army conducted limited offensive operations in the north of Sumy region, but was unable to break through. Geolocated footage published on July 18 confirms strikes by Russian troops on Ukrainian positions in Sumy region southeast of Oleksandria, as well as along the international border west of Kucherov, Kursk region. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google

Where does the news lean?

1YES2NO5neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sumy (50.92932978689303° N, 34.81107584134934° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/qjS5sPf9YgTRYDii6) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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