Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Sloviansk
Open$189Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES8¢
NO92¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have foiled the Russian plan to encircle key cities in the Donetsk region, — ISW
Ukrainian counterattacks have eliminated the Russian advance north of Lyman and disrupted the plan to widely encircle Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War estimate.
The Russians planned to encircle this belt of fortified cities from two sides: from the Lyman area in the north and Pokrovska and Dobropillya in the southwest. Ukrainian successes have effectively eliminated the northern part of this plan.
According to ISW, the Russian command will have to reconsider its plans. Analysts also note that since March, the net increase in Russian territorial gains has been close to zero. At the same time, the exact limits of Ukrainian advances near the Liman remain unclear due to limited open data. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
Where does the news lean?
1YES2NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sloviansk (48.853751256046095° N, 37.60508085394494° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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