Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Kharkiv
Open$112Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The occupiers increased the pace of their offensive towards Sloviansk and Kostyantynivka last week, but retreated in the Kharkiv region – DeepState Over the past week, Russian occupiers have increased the area of occupation of Ukrainian territory by 13.8 sq. km, which is less than the week before last (16.67 sq. km), but largely due to the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which recaptured almost 20 sq. km in the Odradne district of the Kharkiv region, according to maps from the DeepState OSINT project. Instead, the enemy managed to increase the pace of the offensive in several directions in the Donetsk region. In particular, in the Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk and Seversk directions, the enemy captured 23.87 sq. km at the beginning of the week. However, this offensive stopped in the middle of the week. The penetration area ("gray zone") decreased by 9.16 sq. km. ...
Where does the news lean?
7YES2NO18neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kharkiv (50.00429983749034° N, 36.31810952195039° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/m484AfKV3TTS8nB68) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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