Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Kramatorsk
Open$66Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 28% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES28¢
NO73¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Operational information as of 22:00 05/19/2026 regarding the Russian invasion In total, 189 combat clashes have occurred since the beginning of this day. The defense forces continue to stop the enemy, destroy personnel, and exhaust the combat potential of the occupiers by inflicting systematic fire damage. The enemy launched a missile strike using one missile, carried out 62 air strikes, dropped 170 guided bombs. In addition, it engaged 5,662 kamikaze drones for destruction and carried out 2,241 shelling of settlements and positions of our troops. Two clashes have taken place in the North-Slobozhansk and Kursk directions since the beginning of the day. The enemy carried out 81 attacks on settlements and positions of our troops, two of which were carried out using multiple launch rocket systems. In the South Slobozhansk direction, the enemy stormed the positions of our units six times in the areas of the settlements of Izbitske, Hraniv, Lyman, Radkivka, Vilcha, and Starytsia. In the Kupyansk direction, our defenders stopped an enemy attack near the settlement of Kucherivka. In the Lyman direction, Ukrainian soldiers repelled eight attempts by the invaders to advance in the areas of the settlements of Drobysheve, Ozerne, and Dibrova. In the Slavyansk direction, the Defense Forces successfully repelled three attempts by the invaders to advance in the areas of the settlements of Riznykovka and Kryva Luka. The enemy did not conduct any active operations in the Kramatorsk and Orikhiv directions today. The defense forces successfully repelled eleven enemy assaults in the Kostyantynivka direction near Kostyantynivka, Pleshchiivka, Illinivka, and Dovha Balka. In the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy carried out 40 attacks. The occupiers tried to advance in the areas of the settlements of Dorozhne, Rodynske, Oleksandrivka, Pokrovsk, Hryshyne, Kotlyne, Novopavlivka, Novooleksandrivka, Udachne, Molodetske and in the direction of the settlements of Kucheriv Yar, Vilne, Sergiyevka, Gruzke. Two clashes are ongoing. According to preliminary estimates, today in this direction 63 occupiers were eliminated and 12 wounded; six units of special enemy equipment and two drone control points were destroyed; three units of automotive equipment, two guns and two drone control points were damaged. 197 drones of various types were destroyed or suppressed. In the Oleksandrivka direction, the invaders twice tried to improve their position by attacking in the areas of the settlements of Oleksandrovgrad and Berezove. In the Hulyaipil direction, there were 16 attacks by the invaders in the areas of the settlements of Rivnopillya, Radisne, Rybne, Dobropillya, Olenokostyantynivka, Novye Zaporizhzhia, Staroukrainka, Tsvitkove, and Charivne. In the Dnieper direction, our defenders successfully stopped two assault actions in the direction of the Antonivskyi Bridge and Belogrudy Island. There were no significant changes in the situation in other areas. Let us defeat the enemy and bring our Victory closer! Glory to Ukraine!
Where does the news lean?
4YES5NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kramatorsk (48.73714435420954° N, 37.589106045927714° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/TVY1bAwoc98W2L949) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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