Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

OpenOutcomes8as of

Market pricing makes Dopropillia the favorite at 86% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

23 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

KramatorskUkrainian Media94%match32¢-22%
Occupiers advanced by 1 sq. km per day near Kramatorsk – DeepState Russian occupiers have increased the area of ​​control over Ukrainian territory in the area of ​​the village of Tikhonivka, Mykolaiv urban community, Kramatorsk district, Donetsk region, reports the OSINT project DeepState. "The enemy has advanced near Tikhonivka," – reported in the DeepState telegram channel on Thursday. ...
KramatorskUkrainian Media95%match80¢-6%
In the coming months, Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka. And the same risk may loom over Lyman and Dobropillya by the end of the year, - RBC-Ukraine sources in military-political circles According to the interlocutors, if events develop unfavorably by the end of winter, Russian troops may come very close to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. At the same time, according to the Kremlin's plans, the Russian army should reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region by the end of the year. However, RBC-Ukraine sources doubt that Russia will be able to achieve this goal even in 2027. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine [in reply to: Ballistic terror and a trap for Putin: what is Russia planning and is a truce possible this year The pace of the Russian offensive has decreased. This year they are several times lower than in similar periods of previous years, and even lower than they were in winter. The greatest threat remains in the Donetsk region. Moscow still plans to take it by the end of this year. Informed sources of RBC-Ukraine do not consider these terms realistic. However, they suggest that in the coming months Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka; by the end of the year risks may loom over Liman and Dobropillya. Russia may try an offensive in the north. Carrying out such an operation will depend on the presence of sufficient troops in the Russian Federation. This is an operation with limited forces to attempt to break through the border in Chernihiv or even Kyiv region, the main goal is to stretch Ukrainian defenses and pull forces away from Donetsk region. According to the publication, Russian losses at the front have already reached 40 thousand per month, of which more than 60% are dead. A new mobilization in the Russian Federation is not a settled matter. If Putin does take this step, it could involve 100-300 thousand people, and the campaign itself will most likely be stretched out for several months. Before winter, Moscow may intensify strikes, in particular on energy. It is already betting on ballistics and increasing the production of jet drones. Ukraine will respond with mirror strikes. The Russians produce about 66 9M723 missiles for the Iskander-M complex and approximately 10 hypersonic cruise missiles "Tsirkon" per month. There are almost no real prospects for a peaceful settlement this year, according to various interlocutors of RBC-Ukraine. Putin is not ready to end the war without capturing the Donetsk region. "We are currently looking for new ideas, since the old ones are not working," one of the sources familiar with the negotiations told the publication. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine]
SlovianskUkrainian Media95%match79¢-3%
In the coming months, Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka. And the same risk may loom over Lyman and Dobropillya by the end of the year, - RBC-Ukraine sources in military-political circles According to the interlocutors, if events develop unfavorably by the end of winter, Russian troops may come very close to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. At the same time, according to the Kremlin's plans, the Russian army should reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region by the end of the year. However, RBC-Ukraine sources doubt that Russia will be able to achieve this goal even in 2027. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine [in reply to: Ballistic terror and a trap for Putin: what is Russia planning and is a truce possible this year The pace of the Russian offensive has decreased. This year they are several times lower than in similar periods of previous years, and even lower than they were in winter. The greatest threat remains in the Donetsk region. Moscow still plans to take it by the end of this year. Informed sources of RBC-Ukraine do not consider these terms realistic. However, they suggest that in the coming months Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka; by the end of the year risks may loom over Liman and Dobropillya. Russia may try an offensive in the north. Carrying out such an operation will depend on the presence of sufficient troops in the Russian Federation. This is an operation with limited forces to attempt to break through the border in Chernihiv or even Kyiv region, the main goal is to stretch Ukrainian defenses and pull forces away from Donetsk region. According to the publication, Russian losses at the front have already reached 40 thousand per month, of which more than 60% are dead. A new mobilization in the Russian Federation is not a settled matter. If Putin does take this step, it could involve 100-300 thousand people, and the campaign itself will most likely be stretched out for several months. Before winter, Moscow may intensify strikes, in particular on energy. It is already betting on ballistics and increasing the production of jet drones. Ukraine will respond with mirror strikes. The Russians produce about 66 9M723 missiles for the Iskander-M complex and approximately 10 hypersonic cruise missiles "Tsirkon" per month. There are almost no real prospects for a peaceful settlement this year, according to various interlocutors of RBC-Ukraine. Putin is not ready to end the war without capturing the Donetsk region. "We are currently looking for new ideas, since the old ones are not working," one of the sources familiar with the negotiations told the publication. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine]
SumyUkrainian Media92%match93¢+1%
Russian command lies to Putin about successes in Kharkiv and Sumy regions, - ISW Analysts note that the Russian army has been announcing the capture of a new settlement in Kharkiv and Sumy regions almost every day, starting at least from July 22. For example, on July 29, the Russians announced the capture of Novaya Sich, and on July 30 - the capture of Malaya Slobidka and Mogrytsa in Sumy region, as well as Virivka in Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine deny this information and carry out successful attacks in the north. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
KramatorskUkrainian Media96%match18¢+39%
Russians advance in Donetsk region – DeepState Russian occupation forces are advancing in the Donetsk region – in the Kalenkypy area (Kramatorsk district of Donetsk region) towards Sloviansk. This follows from DeepState maps in Telegram on Friday. "The map has been updated. The enemy has advanced near Kalenkypy," DeepState said in a message. ...
SumyUkrainian Media92%match92¢+2%
Russian troops failed new offensive attempts in Sumy region, - ISW On July 19 and 20, the Russian army conducted limited offensive operations in the north of Sumy region, but was unable to break through. Geolocated footage published on July 18 confirms strikes by Russian troops on Ukrainian positions in Sumy region southeast of Oleksandria, as well as along the international border west of Kucherov, Kursk region. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google
Kramatorskalarabiya93%match20¢+25%
Al Arabiya correspondent Raed Al-Aghbar: Russia announces control of two towns in the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions and advances to the outskirts of the strategic city of Kramatorsk amid continued shelling of drone assembly centers and long-range missile technology facilities in Ukraine.
SumyUkraine’s Air Force99%match8¢-25%
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft on the Sumy region.
The main events of the day Units of the 126th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 71st Motorized Rifle Division of the North group of forces established control over the village of Volokhovka in the Kharkiv region. From May 19 to 21, 2026, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will conduct an exercise on the preparation and use of nuclear forces in the face of an aggressive threat. Cannon and rocket artillery crews struck enemy fortifications and UAV launch sites in the Dnipropetrovsk and Krasnolimansk sectors, as well as in the Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions. Forward medical teams of the marines provided assistance to soldiers in the Dobropillia sector, and military engineers cleared access routes and artillery unit positions. Attack aircraft and UAV operators are practicing joint operations at a training ground in the Moscow Military District. Drone operators of unmanned systems continue to deliver precision strikes against the enemy. Join our soldiers and bring Victory closer together! Our cause is just. Victory will be ours! #ResultsOfTheDay The Russian Ministry of Defense's MAKS channel is for insiders only!
Operational information as of 22:00 05/19/2026 regarding the Russian invasion In total, 189 combat clashes have occurred since the beginning of this day. The defense forces continue to stop the enemy, destroy personnel, and exhaust the combat potential of the occupiers by inflicting systematic fire damage. The enemy launched a missile strike using one missile, carried out 62 air strikes, dropped 170 guided bombs. In addition, it engaged 5,662 kamikaze drones for destruction and carried out 2,241 shelling of settlements and positions of our troops. Two clashes have taken place in the North-Slobozhansk and Kursk directions since the beginning of the day. The enemy carried out 81 attacks on settlements and positions of our troops, two of which were carried out using multiple launch rocket systems. In the South Slobozhansk direction, the enemy stormed the positions of our units six times in the areas of the settlements of Izbitske, Hraniv, Lyman, Radkivka, Vilcha, and Starytsia. In the Kupyansk direction, our defenders stopped an enemy attack near the settlement of Kucherivka. In the Lyman direction, Ukrainian soldiers repelled eight attempts by the invaders to advance in the areas of the settlements of Drobysheve, Ozerne, and Dibrova. In the Slavyansk direction, the Defense Forces successfully repelled three attempts by the invaders to advance in the areas of the settlements of Riznykovka and Kryva Luka. The enemy did not conduct any active operations in the Kramatorsk and Orikhiv directions today. The defense forces successfully repelled eleven enemy assaults in the Kostyantynivka direction near Kostyantynivka, Pleshchiivka, Illinivka, and Dovha Balka. In the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy carried out 40 attacks. The occupiers tried to advance in the areas of the settlements of Dorozhne, Rodynske, Oleksandrivka, Pokrovsk, Hryshyne, Kotlyne, Novopavlivka, Novooleksandrivka, Udachne, Molodetske and in the direction of the settlements of Kucheriv Yar, Vilne, Sergiyevka, Gruzke. Two clashes are ongoing. According to preliminary estimates, today in this direction 63 occupiers were eliminated and 12 wounded; six units of special enemy equipment and two drone control points were destroyed; three units of automotive equipment, two guns and two drone control points were damaged. 197 drones of various types were destroyed or suppressed. In the Oleksandrivka direction, the invaders twice tried to improve their position by attacking in the areas of the settlements of Oleksandrovgrad and Berezove. In the Hulyaipil direction, there were 16 attacks by the invaders in the areas of the settlements of Rivnopillya, Radisne, Rybne, Dobropillya, Olenokostyantynivka, Novye Zaporizhzhia, Staroukrainka, Tsvitkove, and Charivne. In the Dnieper direction, our defenders successfully stopped two assault actions in the direction of the Antonivskyi Bridge and Belogrudy Island. There were no significant changes in the situation in other areas. Let us defeat the enemy and bring our Victory closer! Glory to Ukraine!
Kharkivalmayadeenlive99%match6¢-33%
Russia: Ministry of Defense: Our forces have taken control of the village of Volokhovka in the Kharkiv region.
In the Kharkiv region, units of the North military group established control over the village of Volokhovka in the Kharkiv region. MAX – the territory of OUR OWN
KharkivNews99%match6¢-33%
URGENTLY: The Russian Army has established control over Volokhovka in the Kharkiv region – Russian Ministry of Defense
KharkivRussian Media99%match6¢-33%
The Russian army has taken control of Volohovka in the Kharkiv region, the Ministry of Defense reported. RBC Channel in "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android
Kharkivcgtneurope99%match6¢-33%
Russia defence ministry: 'The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have established control over the populated area of Volokhovka in the Kharkiv region, the Ministry of Defense reported. Over the course of a day, energy and port infrastructure facilities used in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ammunition depots, and drone assembly workshops were hit. • • Five guided aerial bombs and 651 drones were shot down by air defense systems.'
Kharkivcgtneurope99%match6¢-33%
Russian troops have 'liberated' Volokhovka in the Kharkiv region, the Ministry of Defense reported.
KramatorskUkrainian Media99%match20¢+25%
The occupiers increased the pace of their offensive towards Sloviansk and Kostyantynivka last week, but retreated in the Kharkiv region – DeepState Over the past week, Russian occupiers have increased the area of occupation of Ukrainian territory by 13.8 sq. km, which is less than the week before last (16.67 sq. km), but largely due to the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which recaptured almost 20 sq. km in the Odradne district of the Kharkiv region, according to maps from the DeepState OSINT project. Instead, the enemy managed to increase the pace of the offensive in several directions in the Donetsk region. In particular, in the Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk and Seversk directions, the enemy captured 23.87 sq. km at the beginning of the week. However, this offensive stopped in the middle of the week. The penetration area ("gray zone") decreased by 9.16 sq. km. ...
SlovianskUkrainian Media99%match27¢-15%
The occupiers increased the pace of their offensive towards Sloviansk and Kostyantynivka last week, but retreated in the Kharkiv region – DeepState Over the past week, Russian occupiers have increased the area of occupation of Ukrainian territory by 13.8 sq. km, which is less than the week before last (16.67 sq. km), but largely due to the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which recaptured almost 20 sq. km in the Odradne district of the Kharkiv region, according to maps from the DeepState OSINT project. Instead, the enemy managed to increase the pace of the offensive in several directions in the Donetsk region. In particular, in the Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk and Seversk directions, the enemy captured 23.87 sq. km at the beginning of the week. However, this offensive stopped in the middle of the week. The penetration area ("gray zone") decreased by 9.16 sq. km. ...
KharkivUkrainian Media99%match94¢+2%
The occupiers increased the pace of their offensive towards Sloviansk and Kostyantynivka last week, but retreated in the Kharkiv region – DeepState Over the past week, Russian occupiers have increased the area of occupation of Ukrainian territory by 13.8 sq. km, which is less than the week before last (16.67 sq. km), but largely due to the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which recaptured almost 20 sq. km in the Odradne district of the Kharkiv region, according to maps from the DeepState OSINT project. Instead, the enemy managed to increase the pace of the offensive in several directions in the Donetsk region. In particular, in the Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk and Seversk directions, the enemy captured 23.87 sq. km at the beginning of the week. However, this offensive stopped in the middle of the week. The penetration area ("gray zone") decreased by 9.16 sq. km. ...
KramatorskUkrainian Media99%match80¢-6%
Two people killed, three injured in Donetsk region due to Russian strikes – police Over the past day, two people have died and three more have been injured due to Russian attacks on populated areas in the region, the Donetsk Oblast Police Communications Department reported. "Kramatorsk withstood 10 attacks, the largest of which was carried out with the Smerch MLRS. The Russians killed a civilian, three more were injured. One apartment building and 22 private houses, a workshop, and five civilian cars were damaged. The enemy dropped three KAB-250 bombs on Druzhkivka - one person was killed, three apartment buildings were damaged," the message on the website of the National Police of Ukraine says. ...
FWD from Social Donbas: Two people died in Donetsk region due to Russian shelling during the day. The occupiers killed residents of Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk, said the head of the OVA Filashkin. Three more people were injured in Kramatorsk.
Terekhov: Two private houses are on fire in the Novobavarskyi district of Kharkiv as a result of being hit by a Russian drone, about ten more homes are damaged. According to the mayor, two people have been rescued, and another person may be under the rubble. Search and rescue operations are ongoing.
Operational information as of 22:00 05/18/2026 regarding the Russian invasion In total, 203 combat clashes have occurred since the beginning of this day. The enemy carried out one missile strike using 22 missiles and 46 air strikes, dropping 144 guided bombs. In addition, it used 6,080 kamikaze drones to destroy the enemy and carried out 2,298 attacks on settlements and positions of our troops. In the North Slobozhansk and Kursk directions today, the enemy carried out one airstrike using four CABs and carried out 63 attacks on the positions of our troops and settlements, one of them with MLRS. In the South Slobozhansky direction, the enemy attacked the positions of our units six times in the areas of the settlements of Starytsia, Vilcha, Prylipka, Veterinarne and towards Grafske. Three of these attacks are ongoing. In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked three times in the direction of Kurylivka and Petropavlivka. In the Lyman direction, Ukrainian soldiers repelled 11 assaults by the invaders, in the areas of the settlements of Stavky, Zarichne, Drobysheve, and towards Ozerne. Two of these attacks are still ongoing. In the Slavyansk direction, the enemy stormed three times towards Rai-Oleksandrivka and Kalenkypy. No attacks by the invaders have been recorded in the Kramatorsk direction. In the Kostyantynivka direction, the invaders stormed the positions of our defenders 16 times today in the areas of the settlements of Ivano-Frankivsk, Illinivka, Pleshchiivka, Vilne, Toretske and towards Kostyantynivka and Kucherovy Yar. In the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy launched 33 attacks. The occupiers tried to advance towards the settlements of Dorozhne, Shevchenko, Rodynske, Novooleksandrivka, Hryshyne, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, Molodetske, Filiya, Bilytske, and Pokrovsk. According to preliminary estimates, today in this direction 57 occupiers were eliminated and 13 wounded, two units of automotive equipment, one shelter and two enemy guns were destroyed. Also, one unit of automotive equipment, 22 enemy shelters and two enemy guns were damaged. 210 UAVs of various types were destroyed or suppressed. In the Oleksandrivka direction, the invaders carried out one assault operation towards the settlement of Vorone. In the Hulyaipil direction, 20 attacks by the invaders were recorded, three of which are still ongoing. The enemy carried out assault operations in the direction of Zlagoda, Novy Zaporizhzhia, Charivne, Tsvitkiv, Rivne, Zaliznychny, Rybne, and Staroukrainka. No attacks by the invaders have been recorded in the Orikhiv direction. In the Dnieper direction, the enemy attacked four times in the areas of Antonivka and Belogruy Island. There were no significant changes in the situation in other areas. Let us defeat the enemy and bring our Victory closer! Glory to Ukraine!

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Related events