Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Ofer Winter

OpenVol$426KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES1¢
NO99¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOMaariv Reporter96%match98¢+1%
Netanyahu has not yet closed the list of candidates - after another effort in the last two days to convince Ofer Winter to accept candidates in the Likud or join the Smotrich-Feiglin list. Winter finally refused and made it clear that "Amach Yisrael" will run independently. In the Likud, Yossi Cohen and Gabi Ashkenazi were also tested, but an internal survey found that they would not add seats and would even subtract slightly - and the possibility was dropped. At the same time, pressure is being exerted on Netanyahu to include Yisrael Katz in the quota of the armored seats - a move that would advance Ze'ev Elkin to 24th place; in the Likud, there is a broad consensus around Elkin that he needs to be integrated into a realistic position. Five of the eight armored seats are still not closed, and the clock is ticking: according to the Likud bylaws, the secretariat meeting is held only 48 hours after the party chairman's announcement about the armored seats - so if Netanyahu announces on Sunday morning, the secretariat will only meet on Tuesday, just hours before the deadline for submitting lists to the Central Elections Committee, at 10:00 PM.
NOMaariv Reporter97%match99¢
Ofer Winter's statement Winter is sharpening the boundaries of his decision tonight - he will recommend Netanyahu for prime minister, but sets a condition for entering his government: "The service law will be passed before the government is sworn in. No one will embarrass us." Winter apologizes to supporters who were disappointed by the recommendation for Netanyahu, but clarifies: "We do not serve a person, but a people." At the same time, he rules out a meeting with Bennett and Lieberman and attacks the government from the right - "Anyone who has not succeeded in 3 years in bringing about a clear decision in Gaza will no longer succeed." And for those who talk about connections on the right, he leaves the door open, but on one condition - only to "new and clean people" who are not "tainted by the October seven."

Where does the news lean?

3YES13NO35neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.

What would make this resolve YES?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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