Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Michelle Bolsonaro
Open$36Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOCGTN Europe98%match94¢+5%
LULA WOULD WIN BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RUN-OFF WITH 43% OF VOTE VS FLAVIO BOLSONARO'S 38% - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
NOCGTN America98%match94¢+5%
LULA WOULD WIN BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RUN-OFF WITH 43% OF VOTE VS FLAVIO BOLSONARO'S 38% - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
NOCGTN America98%match92¢+8%
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR, SAYS CNN BRASIL
NOCGTN Europe98%match92¢+8%
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR - REPORTS
Where does the news lean?
0YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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