Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Jair Bolsonaro
Open$16Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Could Brazil leave BRICS after the presidential elections? The presidential campaign officially starts in Brazil today. A total of 13 candidates are running, but the main fight will be between the current 80-year-old head of state, Lula da Silva (Workers' Party), and the son of the convicted former president, Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio (Liberal Party). Lula plans to gather his supporters in Sao Paulo on Sunday, and Bolsonaro Jr. will gather on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. The elections themselves are scheduled for October 4, and the inauguration ceremony will take place on January 1, 2027. Two months before the presidential elections, the gap between the current Brazilian leader, Lula da Silva, and his main rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, has narrowed. The latter may curtail cooperation with BRICS if he wins. Read more in the RBC article. RBC Channel on Max
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Brazilian President Lula da Silva is running against Jair Bolsonaro's son in the elections
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has been confirmed as the Liberal Party's candidate for president of Brazil. At the conference he launched, a message from Prime Minister Netanyahu was broadcast: "You will bring Brazil to great heights" @RamEliBrandts
NOReuters99%match98¢+1%
Jair Bolsonaro backs son's Brazil presidential bid, undergoes hernia surgery
NOAl Jazeera English98%match97¢+2%
Thousands of people joined demonstrations across Brazil to protest against a bill that would reduce the prison sentence of former president, Jair Bolsonaro. He was jailed for plotting a failed coup after losing the 2022 elections.
NOCGTN Europe98%match98¢+1%
BRAZIL SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO: SPOKE TO FORMER PRESIDENT BOLSONARO, WE WILL NOT WALK BACK ON MY PRESIDENTIAL RUN
NOAl Jazeera English98%match96¢+3%
Flavio Bolsonaro enters Brazil’s 2026 presidential race with father’s nod
NOCGTN America98%match96¢+3%
BRAZIL SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO SAYS FATHER JAIR BOLSONARO HAS CHOSEN HIM FOR "THE MISSION OF GIVING CONTINUITY TO OUR PROJECT FOR THE NATION"
NOCGTN Europe98%match96¢+3%
BRAZIL SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO SAYS FATHER JAIR BOLSONARO HAS CHOSEN HIM FOR "THE MISSION OF GIVING CONTINUITY TO OUR PROJECT FOR THE NATION"
NOCGTN America98%match96¢+3%
BRAZIL'S BOLSONARO SUPPORTS SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT NEXT YEAR, SAYS HEAD OF LIBERAL PARTY
NOCGTN America98%match96¢+3%
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR, SAYS CNN BRASIL
NOCGTN Europe98%match96¢+3%
BRAZIL EX-PRESIDENT BOLSONARO SIGNALS SUPPORT FOR SENATOR FLAVIO BOLSONARO AS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR - REPORTS
NOBloomberg98%match96¢+3%
Brazilian assets slumped to session lows after a local media report that former President Bolsonaro intends to back his son Flavio Bolsonaro in presidential elections next October
Where does the news lean?
0YES13NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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