Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Flavio Bolsonaro
Open$74Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 95% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES95¢
NO6¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro neck and neck ahead of Brazil election, Nexus poll shows
YESReuters97%match93¢+2%
Lula Seen with 47% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 43% in Potential Brazil Presidential Runoff - Datafolha Poll
YESReuters97%match86¢+10%
Lula Seen with 43% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 40% in Potential Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off - Quaest Poll
YESReuters97%match86¢+10%
Lula Seen with 38% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 31% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Quaest Poll
Lula’s lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows in Brazil election second-round, CNT/MDA poll shows
YESReuters97%match86¢+10%
Lula Seen with 48.0% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 39.1% in Potential Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off - Cnt/Mda Poll
YESReuters97%match87¢+9%
Lula Seen with 39%, Flavio Bolsonaro 30%, Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 4% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
YESReuters97%match87¢+9%
Lula Seen with 44% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 39% in Potential Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off - Genial/Quaest Poll
Flavio Bolsonaro closes in on Lula in Nexus/BTG poll for Brazil election
YESReuters97%match84¢+13%
Lula Seen with 49.2% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 42.9% in Brazil Presidential Election Runoff - Atlasintel/Bloomberg Poll
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro launches his campaign against President Lula
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro launches his campaign against President Lula
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has been confirmed as the Liberal Party's candidate for president of Brazil. At the conference he launched, a message from Prime Minister Netanyahu was broadcast: "You will bring Brazil to great heights" @RamEliBrandts
Flavio Bolsonaro has become a candidate for the presidency of Brazil The Liberal Party has approved the candidacy of Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. In the upcoming elections, he intends to compete with the current head of state, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Details - here [in reply to: Dozens of people injured by lightning strike at a rally in support of Bolsonaro According to doctors, 29 victims with burns, mainly to the arms and abdomen, were taken to hospitals. The condition of at least eight people is assessed as serious. The rest received assistance on the spot or as outpatients. ]
Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, is formally nominated by his party as candidate in the October presidential election. He is set to face leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva who is seeking a 4th term. •
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
YESBloomberg99%match74¢+28%
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are deadlocked ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election, according to a new poll that shows the race tied for the first time
YESVisegrád 2498%match73¢+30%
BREAKING: Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (@FlavioBolsonaro): "I speak today not only as a senator, but as a candidate for president of Brazil. My father, Jair Bolsonaro, is in prison because of political persecution, not justice. But ideas cannot be locked away, and truth…
YESReuters99%match45¢+111%
Jair Bolsonaro backs son's Brazil presidential bid, undergoes hernia surgery
Where does the news lean?
63YES5NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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