Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Flavio Bolsonaro
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$269Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
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50 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Brazil's presidential election is officially heading to a runoff with right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro holding a slight lead over incumbent President Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro has emerged as the frontrunner in Brazil's presidential election. However, he failed to reach the 50% threshold for victory, and a runoff is imminent. The Liberal Party candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the former president, received 47.42% of the vote, with 97.36% of the ballots counted. He is followed by the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with 42.25%. Since neither candidate reached the required threshold, the winner will be determined in the second round of voting, scheduled for October 25.
Bolsonaro has become the leader in the presidential elections in Brazil. However, he did not reach the 50% threshold for victory, and a second round is coming. The Liberal Party candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the former president, received 47.42% of the vote, with 97.36% of the ballots counted. He is followed by the incumbent head of state, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with 42.25%. Since neither candidate reached the required threshold, the winner will be determined in the second round of voting, which is scheduled for October 25. Zvezdanews on MAX
YESXinhua96%match100¢
Urgent: Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro head to runoff in Brazil presidential election
Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva advance to the second round of elections in Brazil.
Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva to face off in second round on October 25 mehrnews.com @Mehrnews
Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva will go to the second round of elections on October 25 Get the latest news:
Site | Ita | Yes | Rubica | Soroush Plus @snntv [in reply to: Possibility of the Brazilian election going to the second round With 88% of the votes counted in the Brazilian general election, neither of the two candidates, Flavio Bolsonaro (from the Liberal Party) and Lula da Silva (from the Workers' Party), have managed to win more than 50% of the votes; an issue that has greatly increased the possibility of the election going to the second round. Get the latest news:
Site | Ita | Yes | Rubica | Soroush Plus @snntv]
Brazil goes to runoff in presidential election; right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro leads
Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva to face runoff on October 25 @iribnews
Brazil goes to runoff in presidential election; right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro leads.
FLAVIO BOLSONARO, LULA ADVANCE TO SECOND ROUND OF BRAZIL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
Live: Flavio Bolsonaro beats polls in presidential vote, faces Lula in runoff
Brazil's election likely to go to second round With 88% of the votes counted in Brazil's general election, neither candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro (from the Liberal Party) nor Lula da Silva (from the Workers' Party), has won more than 50% of the vote; a matter that has greatly increased the likelihood of the election going to a second round. @TasnimNews [in reply to: Bolsonaro still leading in Brazil's election With 47.26% of the votes counted in Brazil's presidential election, Flavio Bolsonaro is leading with 50.20% of the vote, and Lula da Silva has won 41.63% of the vote. @TasnimNews]
Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro beats polls in presidential vote, faces Lula in runoff
Brazilian electoral authorities: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva head to a presidential runoff election
YESReuters92%match100¢
Flavio Bolsonaro Outperforms Polls, Leads Lula Going Into Runoff Vote
YESReuters97%match100¢
Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula Headed to Runoff in Brazil Presidential Election -- Electoral Authority
Right-wing candidate leads in Brazil's presidential election More than half of the votes in the first round of Brazil's presidential election have been counted, and initial results show Senator Flavio Bolsonaro leading; although his gap with his rival has narrowed, and at the same time, the Datafolia polling agency predicted that the election will go to a second round. Flavio, the 45-year-old son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who hopes to bring his father's right-wing movement back to power, is ahead of the country's 80-year-old leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
#IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Brazil: Al-Mayadeen correspondent: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva will go to a second round of elections on October 25
Brazil: Al-Mayadeen correspondent: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva will go to a second round of elections on October 25
YESNews94%match100¢
(Al Mayadeen) Al Mayadeen correspondent in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva will go to a second round of elections on October 25
Reuters News Agency: Right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro and left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have advanced to the second round of Brazil's presidential election.
Reuters, citing election data: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva headed to a runoff in the Brazilian presidential election.
FLAVIO BOLSONARO, LULA HEADED TO RUNOFF IN BRAZIL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
Assaf Rosenzweig
The polls have closed in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election: none of the candidates is expected to reach 50%, and President Lula da Silva and right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro are expected to face off in the second round in three weeks.
Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro face off in knife-edge election
Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula tied in runoff scenario, Atlas poll shows
Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro statistically tied ahead of Brazil election, Nexus poll shows
Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro neck and neck ahead of Brazil election, Nexus poll shows
YESReuters97%match93¢+8%
Lula Seen with 47% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 43% in Potential Brazil Presidential Runoff - Datafolha Poll
YESReuters97%match86¢+16%
Lula Seen with 43% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 40% in Potential Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off - Quaest Poll
Lula’s lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows in Brazil election second-round, CNT/MDA poll shows
YESReuters97%match86¢+16%
Lula Seen with 48.0% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 39.1% in Potential Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off - Cnt/Mda Poll
YESReuters97%match87¢+15%
Lula Seen with 39%, Flavio Bolsonaro 30%, Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 4% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
YESReuters97%match87¢+15%
Lula Seen with 44% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 39% in Potential Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off - Genial/Quaest Poll
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro launches his campaign against President Lula
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has been confirmed as the Liberal Party's candidate for president of Brazil. At the conference he launched, a message from Prime Minister Netanyahu was broadcast: "You will bring Brazil to great heights" @RamEliBrandts
Flavio Bolsonaro officially announces his candidacy for the Brazilian presidential election.
Live: #BRAZIL Flavio Bolsonaro has been nominated by Brazil's main right-wing party to challenge left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the October elections...
Crisis-hit Flavio Bolsonaro launches presidential candidacy in Brazil
Brazil has denied visa requests for two Trump administration officials who planned to travel to the country to cast doubt on the integrity of its electoral system ahead of October elections, in which leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of Jair and a trump’s ally, according to two Brazilian officials • • Reuters
YESReuters97%match80¢+25%
Lula Seen with 40%, Flavio Bolsonaro with 32%, and Caiado with 4% in Brazil Presidential Election First Round - Datafolha Poll
YESReuters97%match79¢+27%
Lula Seen with 48% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 43% in Brazil Presidential Election Runoff - Datafolha Poll
The Liberal Party is launching Flavio Bolsonaro's candidacy for the Brazilian presidency.
YESReuters99%match81¢+23%
Lula Seen with 40%, Flavio Bolsonaro 28%, Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 3%, Zema 2% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
YESBloomberg98%match76¢+32%
Flavio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy is shifting into higher gear, surprising skeptics who initially didn’t believe his decision to run for Brazil’s top job was real.
YESCGTN Europe98%match75¢+33%
LULA WOULD WIN BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RUN-OFF WITH 43% OF VOTE VS FLAVIO BOLSONARO'S 38% - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
YESCGTN Europe98%match75¢+33%
LULA SEEN WITH 35%-39%, FLAVIO BOLSONARO 29%-33% IN FIRST ROUND SCENARIOS OF BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
YESCGTN America98%match75¢+33%
LULA SEEN WITH 35%-39%, FLAVIO BOLSONARO 29%-33% IN FIRST ROUND SCENARIOS OF BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
YESVisegrád 2498%match73¢+37%
BREAKING: Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (@FlavioBolsonaro): "I speak today not only as a senator, but as a candidate for president of Brazil. My father, Jair Bolsonaro, is in prison because of political persecution, not justice. But ideas cannot be locked away, and truth…
Where does the news lean?
129YES9NO21neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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