Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$898Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
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44 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Brazil's presidential election is officially heading to a runoff with right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro holding a slight lead over incumbent President Lula da Silva.
Brazil elections: Bolsonaro and da Silva face off in runoff scheduled for October 25
Da Silva and Bolsonaro Head to Runoff in Brazilian Presidential Election ====== Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his rival Flávio Bolsonaro will face off in a decisive runoff election on October 25. Reuters reported that neither candidate secured 50% + 1 of the valid votes in the first round on Sunday. Approximately 160 million Brazilian voters cast their ballots in the presidential election amid heightened security and sharp polarization. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (80 years old) is seeking a fourth term as president of Brazil. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (45 years old), son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, hopes to bring his father's right-wing movement back to power.
Brazil elections: Bolsonaro and da Silva face off in runoff scheduled for October 25
Da Silva and Bolsonaro Head to Runoff in Brazilian Presidential Election ====== Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his rival Flávio Bolsonaro will face off in a decisive runoff election on October 25. Reuters reported that neither candidate secured 50% + 1 of the valid votes in the first round on Sunday. Approximately 160 million Brazilian voters cast their ballots in the presidential election amid heightened security and sharp polarization. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (80 years old) is seeking a fourth term as president of Brazil. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (45 years old), son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, hopes to bring his father's right-wing movement back to power.
Brazil elections: Bolsonaro and da Silva face off in runoff scheduled for October 25
Brazil elections: Bolsonaro and da Silva face off in runoff scheduled for October 25
Brazil elections: Bolsonaro and da Silva face off in runoff scheduled for October 25
Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva advance to the second round of elections in Brazil.
Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva will go to the second round of elections on October 25 Get the latest news:
Site | Ita | Yes | Rubica | Soroush Plus @snntv [in reply to: Possibility of the Brazilian election going to the second round With 88% of the votes counted in the Brazilian general election, neither of the two candidates, Flavio Bolsonaro (from the Liberal Party) and Lula da Silva (from the Workers' Party), have managed to win more than 50% of the votes; an issue that has greatly increased the possibility of the election going to the second round. Get the latest news:
Site | Ita | Yes | Rubica | Soroush Plus @snntv]
Brazil's presidential election heads to a runoff on the 25th between a pro-American right-wing candidate who admires Trump and the incumbent left-wing president; a close race is expected.
Brazil: Lula and Bolsonaro must face a runoff election
Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva to face runoff on October 25 @iribnews
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro have advanced to the second round of Brazil's presidential election, according to data from Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court (which serves as the Central Electoral Commission). After nearly 99% of the ballots were processed, Mr. Bolsonaro received 47.28%, while Lula da Silva received 44.87%. The second round will be held on October 25. Voting is being organized because neither candidate received more than 50%. Incumbent President Lula da Silva represents the center-left Workers' Party. If he wins, he will remain in office for a fourth term. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, represents the Liberal Party. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Brazil's election likely to go to second round With 88% of the votes counted in Brazil's general election, neither candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro (from the Liberal Party) nor Lula da Silva (from the Workers' Party), has won more than 50% of the vote; a matter that has greatly increased the likelihood of the election going to a second round. @TasnimNews [in reply to: Bolsonaro still leading in Brazil's election With 47.26% of the votes counted in Brazil's presidential election, Flavio Bolsonaro is leading with 50.20% of the vote, and Lula da Silva has won 41.63% of the vote. @TasnimNews]
Brazilian electoral authorities: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva head to a presidential runoff election
Brazil election moves to runoff after Bolsonaro, Lula fail to garner majority vote, electoral court says
TASS: FLAVIO BOLSONARU AND LULA DA SILVA ADVANCE TO SECOND ROUND OF BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - ELECTION COMMISSION
YESNews91%match100¢
*BRAZIL ELECTION HEADS TO BOLSONARO, LULA RUNOFF ON OCT. 25
YESNews95%match100¢
Brazilian media reports that Lula and Flavio are certain to advance to the runoff in the presidential election.
Brazil: Al-Mayadeen correspondent: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva will go to a second round of elections on October 25
Brazil: Al-Mayadeen correspondent: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva will go to a second round of elections on October 25
YESNews92%match100¢
(Al Mayadeen) Al Mayadeen correspondent in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva will go to a second round of elections on October 25
Bolsonaro and Lula virtually certain to advance to Brazil presidential runoff
Brazilian elections likely to go to a second round With 88% of the votes counted in Brazil's general election, neither candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro (from the Liberal Party) nor Lula da Silva (from the Workers' Party), has won more than 50% of the vote; a matter that has greatly increased the likelihood of the election going to a second round. Get the latest news:
Site | Ita | Yes | Rubica | Soroush Plus @snntv
Reuters News Agency: Right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro and left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have advanced to the second round of Brazil's presidential election.
Reuters, citing election data: Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva headed to a runoff in the Brazilian presidential election.
In a second round scenario, Lula leads with 47.3% compared to 40% for the Liberal Party candidate.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains his lead in the polls with 39% of the vote, closely followed by far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, with 35%.
The two leading candidates in Brazil's presidential election, incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his main rival Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, launched their campaigns, according to statements from their respective parties. Lula da Silva kicked off his campaign in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo state, delivering a speech in the same stadium where he gave his first speeches as a union leader many years ago. In his speech, Lula stressed that Brazil should not "choose between the United States and China," emphasizing the priority of national interests. Meanwhile, right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro began his campaign on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro, where crowds of supporters gathered. In his speech, Bolsonaro declared, "I am the only one who can sit at the negotiating table with the United States, China, Israel, the countries of the Middle East, India, and Argentina, and make the best and biggest trade deals." For the benefit of our country. #AlMayadeen
A Quaest poll placed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the favorite in Brazil's presidential elections, with 38% of the vote compared to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. In four simulated runoff scenarios, Lula would win every time, while Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado tied for third place with 4%.
Brazil’s Lula launches historic fourth term bid – but son of jailed Bolsonaro stands in his way
Could Brazil leave BRICS after the presidential elections? The presidential campaign officially starts in Brazil today. A total of 13 candidates are running, but the main fight will be between the current 80-year-old head of state, Lula da Silva (Workers' Party), and the son of the convicted former president, Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio (Liberal Party). Lula plans to gather his supporters in Sao Paulo on Sunday, and Bolsonaro Jr. will gather on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. The elections themselves are scheduled for October 4, and the inauguration ceremony will take place on January 1, 2027. Two months before the presidential elections, the gap between the current Brazilian leader, Lula da Silva, and his main rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, has narrowed. The latter may curtail cooperation with BRICS if he wins. Read more in the RBC article. RBC Channel on Max
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Brazil's ruling party nominates incumbent Lula for presidential election, focusing on national defense.
Brazilian President Lula runs as Workers' Party presidential candidate… seeking fourth term.
Brazilian President Lula has registered as a presidential candidate with the Supreme Electoral Court.
Brazil presidential election just over two months away… Lula leads in polls
YESNews93%match95¢+5%
*LULA LEADS BOLSONARO 49%-43% IN BRAZIL RUNOFF ELECTION SCENARIO
Brazil has denied visa requests for two Trump administration officials who planned to travel to the country to cast doubt on the integrity of its electoral system ahead of October elections, in which leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of Jair and a trump’s ally, according to two Brazilian officials • • Reuters
YESCGTN Europe99%match86¢+16%
LULA WOULD WIN BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RUN-OFF WITH 43% OF VOTE VS FLAVIO BOLSONARO'S 38% - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
YESCGTN Europe98%match86¢+16%
LULA SEEN WITH 35%-39%, FLAVIO BOLSONARO 29%-33% IN FIRST ROUND SCENARIOS OF BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
YESCGTN America98%match86¢+16%
LULA SEEN WITH 35%-39%, FLAVIO BOLSONARO 29%-33% IN FIRST ROUND SCENARIOS OF BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
YESCGTN America99%match86¢+16%
LULA WOULD WIN BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RUN-OFF WITH 43% OF VOTE VS FLAVIO BOLSONARO'S 38% - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
YESBloomberg99%match78¢+28%
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintained a steady lead over his main challengers, including Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, ahead of Brazil’s 2026 election
Where does the news lean?
82YES2NO27neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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