Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
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Market pricing makes Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the favorite at 97% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro neck and neck ahead of Brazil election, Nexus poll shows
Lula led a campaign event in Rio de Janeiro to consolidate his broad coalition ahead of the 2026 elections. He was accompanied by gubernatorial candidate Eduardo Paes. #teleSUR #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #LatinAmerica
Lula leads over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows
Lula Seen with 47% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 43% in Potential Brazil Presidential Runoff - Datafolha Poll
The two leading candidates in Brazil's presidential election, incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his main rival Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, launched their campaigns, according to statements from their respective parties. Lula da Silva kicked off his campaign in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo state, delivering a speech in the same stadium where he gave his first speeches as a union leader many years ago. In his speech, Lula stressed that Brazil should not "choose between the United States and China," emphasizing the priority of national interests. Meanwhile, right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro began his campaign on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro, where crowds of supporters gathered. In his speech, Bolsonaro declared, "I am the only one who can sit at the negotiating table with the United States, China, Israel, the countries of the Middle East, India, and Argentina, and make the best and biggest trade deals." For the benefit of our country. #AlMayadeen
A Quaest poll placed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the favorite in Brazil's presidential elections, with 38% of the vote compared to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. In four simulated runoff scenarios, Lula would win every time, while Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado tied for third place with 4%.
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his right-wing rival Flavio Bolsonaro kicked off their election campaigns with a bid to woo women voters who could prove decisive in a tight race for the presidency. •
Brazil’s Lula launches historic fourth term bid – but son of jailed Bolsonaro stands in his way
Could Brazil leave BRICS after the presidential elections? The presidential campaign officially starts in Brazil today. A total of 13 candidates are running, but the main fight will be between the current 80-year-old head of state, Lula da Silva (Workers' Party), and the son of the convicted former president, Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio (Liberal Party). Lula plans to gather his supporters in Sao Paulo on Sunday, and Bolsonaro Jr. will gather on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. The elections themselves are scheduled for October 4, and the inauguration ceremony will take place on January 1, 2027. Two months before the presidential elections, the gap between the current Brazilian leader, Lula da Silva, and his main rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, has narrowed. The latter may curtail cooperation with BRICS if he wins. Read more in the RBC article. RBC Channel on Max
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Could Brazil leave BRICS after the presidential elections? The presidential campaign officially starts in Brazil today. A total of 13 candidates are running, but the main fight will be between the current 80-year-old head of state, Lula da Silva (Workers' Party), and the son of the convicted former president, Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio (Liberal Party). Lula plans to gather his supporters in Sao Paulo on Sunday, and Bolsonaro Jr. will gather on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. The elections themselves are scheduled for October 4, and the inauguration ceremony will take place on January 1, 2027. Two months before the presidential elections, the gap between the current Brazilian leader, Lula da Silva, and his main rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, has narrowed. The latter may curtail cooperation with BRICS if he wins. Read more in the RBC article. RBC Channel on Max
RBC app for iOS and Android
Brazil’s Lula launches reelection bid, aims to win back workers to his Workers Party
Lula Seen with 43% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 40% in Potential Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off - Quaest Poll
Lula Seen with 38% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 31% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Quaest Poll
Lula’s lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows in Brazil election second-round, CNT/MDA poll shows
Lula Seen with 48.0% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 39.1% in Potential Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off - Cnt/Mda Poll
Lula Seen with 39%, Flavio Bolsonaro 30%, Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 4% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
Lula Seen with 44% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 39% in Potential Brazil’s Presidential Election Run-Off - Genial/Quaest Poll
"I want to fight old age." Lula da Silva is entering his fourth term. The Brazilian president will once again seek the presidency of Brazil. The 80-year-old politician promised to increase defense spending and questioned why "a country like Brazil still doesn't have a drone factory." His main rival in the October elections will be the son of far-right former Brazilian President Flavio Bolsonaro, who enjoys the support of US President Donald Trump. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Flavio Bolsonaro closes in on Lula in Nexus/BTG poll for Brazil election
Lula pledges to defend Brazil's sovereignty by announcing his candidacy for re-election Brazil's president has announced his candidacy for the country's presidential election in October, presenting himself as an experienced leader capable of guiding the country in times of global instability. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Brazil's ruling party nominates incumbent Lula for president, focusing on national defense; pressure from the Trump administration worsens relations.
Incumbent Lula has announced his candidacy for re-election in the Brazilian presidential election in October.
Brazil: "In top form," Lula, at 80, embarks on his final battle
Incumbent Lula has announced his candidacy for re-election in Brazil's presidential election in October.
Brazil's ruling party nominates incumbent Lula for presidential election, focusing on national defense.
Brazilian President Lula runs as Workers' Party presidential candidate… seeking fourth term.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva is running against Jair Bolsonaro's son in the elections
Brazilian President Lula da Silva is running against Jair Bolsonaro's son in the elections
Brazilian President Lula da Silva has launched his presidential campaign for the elections on October 4th.
Brazilian President Lula has registered as a presidential candidate with the Supreme Electoral Court.
What is this event about?
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).