Predicted Fed rate under each Fed ChairKevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5%
ResolvedOutcome: No$16Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
35 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh to Lead Fed in Narrowest-Ever Vote
Kevin Warsh Is Confirmed as Fed Chair in 54–45 Senate Vote • Divided vote signals challenge ahead for Warsh, who faces a Fed committee skeptical of rate cuts Trump has demanded
Kevin Warsh is set to get confirmed as the next Fed chair on a day when the market* is strongly suggesting that the cutting cycle of 2024-25 is over. • • *(as an example, the 2-year note rising to a level last seen in June, when policy rates were 75 bps higher than they are today)
Kevin Hassett at the WSJ CEO Council last December: "Suppose that inflation has gone from, say, 2½ to 4, you can't cut rates then." • • [Transcript] • • Poppy Harlow: So let's play out a scenario here. We know where the president stands on rates. He makes it very clear very often. If you do become the Fed chair, Kevin, and he pressures you both privately but publicly on Truth Social or says it—and your economic judgment is rates should not be cut. Now what do you do? • • Kevin Hassett: You just do the right thing. • • Poppy Harlow: What's the right thing? • • Kevin Hassett: Well, the right thing is—if you think, like—what is the judgment? So suppose that inflation has gone from, say, 2½ to 4, you can't cut rates then.[crosstalk] I guess I could envision a computer model where there's such a huge positive productivity shock that you'd get away with it, but it's just very implausible.
NEC Director Kevin Hassett: "Two months in a row now, we've had blockbuster jobs numbers... initial claims for unemployment insurance right now are the lowest since we've ever been counting them — all the way back to the 1960s. The job market is really, really, really strong."
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: I think we'll see rate cuts this year because of Warsh
YESNews99%match6¢-100%
*HASSETT: NO SIGN OF RUNAWAY INFLATION FOR FED TO RAISE RATES
.@SenatorTimScott: "This is a good decision by @POTUS to choose Kevin Warsh... frankly, we are more likely to see more Americans experiencing their version of the American Dream because Kevin Warsh will be chairing the Fed."
Fed Chair Nominee Warsh Discloses Assets Worth Over $190 Million •
Fed chair nominee Warsh clears a hurdle to Senate hearing, CNBC reports
Fed nominee Warsh clears a hurdle to Senate hearing
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: The outlook for the Fed having room to cut rates is going to be very solid.
YESReuters98%match1¢-100%
Hassett: Outlook for Fed Having Room to Cut Rates is Going to Be Very Solid -Fox Business
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: • • "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this is a temporary disruption and not like something that affects the long run inflation rates. And so I think that rates should be lower. I think that my friend Kevin Warsh probably believes that still too."
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett expressed confidence that Kevin Warsh would begin as Federal Reserve chairman in May, and he does not expect current Fed chairman Jerome Powell to remain on the board. • • More Here →
HASSETT: RATES SHOULD BE LOWER ...
HASSETT: RATES SHOULD BE LOWER
YESNews99%match1¢-100%
*HASSETT: RATES SHOULD BE LOWER
WH SR. ADVISER HASSETT: I EXPECT FED TO LOWER RATES ONCE WARSH ARRIVES ...
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: I expect Fed to lower rates once Warsh arrives
HASSETT: EXPECT FED TO LOWER RATES ONCE WARSH GETS THERE ...
HASSETT: EXPECT FED TO LOWER RATES ONCE WARSH GETS THERE
NOReuters99%match99¢+1%
Hassett: Expect Fed to Lower Rates Once Warsh Gets There
HASSETT: FED SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER RATES ...
HASSETT: FED SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER RATES
YESNews99%match1¢-100%
*HASSETT: FED SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER RATES
NOBloomberg98%match98¢+2%
Inflation will sideline the Fed for months, @JonathanJLevin says. Kevin Warsh may find himself waiting uncomfortably long to deliver the rate cuts President Trump is demanding (via @opinion)
NOReuters99%match99¢+1%
Fed's Kashkari: Hassett comments about Fed researchers represent another attack on independence
YESWatcher.Guru98%match0¢
JUST IN: White House Advisor Hassett says there is "plenty" of room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
NOFinancialJuice98%match100¢
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: Inflation numbers will be key factor for the Fed decision. WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: We can easily see 4% to 5% GDP growth this year. WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: AI boom can drive productivity and economic growth.
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match0¢
HASSETT: I THINK THERE'S PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE FED TO CUT RATES
YESFirst Squawk98%match0¢
HASSETT: I THINK THERE'S PLENTY OF ROOM FOR FED TO CUT RATES
NOBreaking91198%match100¢
Kevin Hassett: "Private sector jobs, which is our main focus right now because we've been reducing government employment, they went up 170,000—they absolutely blew out any expectation whatsoever. It's really a remarkable, strong number."
NOBloomberg99%match98¢+2%
The Fed should focus on getting its balance sheet “as lean as possible,” Trump’s economic adviser Kevin Hassett says
NOCNBC99%match97¢+3%
Fed is likely to lower rates only two more times, even under Trump's next chair pick: CNBC Fed survey
Where does the news lean?
27YES31NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
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