Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
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Market pricing makes Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% the favorite at 97% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
A RATE HIKE THIS MONTH IS NOW LESS LIKELY • • There is now an 85% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed make NO CHANGES to interest rates when they meet later this month
Trump chose Warsh to lead the Fed with the goal of lowering interest rates... but Warsh raised them. Trump chose him to head the Fed amid repeated calls for interest rate cuts, but Kevin Warsh has now led the first US interest rate hike in more than three years. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% unanimously, while Fed officials predict further tightening is possible in 2026. Does Warsh's decision strengthen the Fed's independence from Trump's pressure, or are we witnessing the beginning of a larger confrontation between the White House and the central bank? #Arabic_Business
Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes
Kevin Warsh raised rates and gave investors little reason to think it's a one-off. The Fed chairman's language suggests the central bank sees more work ahead, even if its projections show just one more hike. • • His comment about having "removed a dose of accommodation" is Fed-speak for stimulus, meaning officials don't think rates are restraining the economy even after raising them. • • He also cited geopolitics as a reason to act. His comment about a change in "our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely" outcome suggests the Fed is no longer treating the energy shock as something to wait out. • • That led one analyst, BNP's James Egelhof, to suggest that the first hike and the additional 2026 hike penciled into the rate projections is "likely a down payment on what might need to be a much more prolonged policy tightening cycle." • • President Trump said Wednesday evening that he was standing by the chairman, who he said has “a very tough board" that is politically opposed to him. “I talked to Kevin. I said, ‘You might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter." • • Warsh declined to discuss his conversations with the president but said the choice to raise rates had been “one that we have been preparing for and thinking about” since he arrived at the Fed in May. He called it a “sober,” “serious,” and “responsible” decision. • •
Trump stated that he still supports Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, and said he spoke with Warsh shortly before the central bank unanimously voted to raise interest rates.
NEW: President Trump reacts to the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates — and he expresses sharp disagreement with his new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. • • "I want him to be independent, but it's my opinion...interest rates are too high."
TRUMP LASHES OUT AT FED AFTER WARSH BACKS RATE HIKE • • President Trump criticized the Fed after its unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, demanding rates be cut to 1% or lower. • • Trump said he still has confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh but called the Fed board “very hostile” and “very political.” • • Meanwhile, 16 of 18 policymakers see at least one more hike this year, with Warsh warning that inflation remains “too high” and underlying trends have not improved.
TRUMP LASHES OUT AT FED AFTER WARSH BACKS RATE HIKE • • President Trump criticized the Fed after its unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, demanding rates be cut to 1% or lower. • • Trump said he still has confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh but called the Fed board “very hostile” and “very political.” • • Meanwhile, 16 of 18 policymakers see at least one more hike this year, with Warsh warning that inflation remains “too high” and underlying trends have not improved.
Here are the key points from the Federal Open Market Committee statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years, saying the goal is to bring inflation back to its 2% target "sooner." Policymakers also expect another rate hike before the end of the year and have removed their projections for a rate cut next year. They now believe the Fed will keep interest rates steady through 2027. During his press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly emphasized the strength of the economy and said today's rate hike removes "a dose of easing" from monetary policy. Warsh declined to answer questions about whether he had recently been in contact with US President Donald Trump. The Fed's decision was unanimous, and the projections of committee members, known as the "dot chart," show strong support for at least one more rate hike, with 16 officials believing it is likely. Yields on two-year US Treasury notes rose to their highest level since 2024 following the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy and Warsh's press conference, while longer-term yields held steady or declined, in stark contrast to the day of the last interest rate decision. Stocks fell, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 1%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%. #Arabic_Business
With rate hike expectations at ~90%, a 25bps raise is a done deal (unless Warsh wants to shock the market) even as Goldman, Rabobank and others say Fed doesn't actually need to raise rates. • • Warsh painted himself into a corner after his J-Hole speech
Fed’s table is set for a rate hike, a first under Warsh
Fed Chair Warsh sets a "litmus test" for himself; 90% of those expecting interest rate hikes are pushing him to take the plunge.
Fed rate-hike odds surge as Warsh faces inflation-weary markets. • September Fed rate-hike bets surge after hottish August CPI as investors weigh whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver more than one increase, in any.
More than 3% of gold evaporated in a single session after a hawkish message from Kevin Warsh. The inflation target of 2% remains unchanged, and markets are pricing in a probability exceeding 50% for an interest rate hike in September. The battle is bigger than an interest rate decision; the US Treasury is moving to lower borrowing costs by increasing bond purchases, while the Fed is threatening to raise rates. Who will win the gold battle in September: the Treasury, which wants to lower yields, or the Fed, which wants to kill inflation? #Arabic_Business
The market didn't wait for the Fed this time. Traders are pricing in a roughly 60% probability of a September rate hike after Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone at Jackson Hole. Some major bond investors aren't easily swayed by rhetoric. Warsh previously spoke strongly about inflation and then kept rates steady. A repeat of this scenario could shift the focus from the interest rate level to the credibility of the Fed itself. If Warsh keeps rates unchanged again despite market expectations of a hike, will this be a positive surprise for stocks, or will it trigger a new crisis of confidence in the bond market? #Arabic_Business
A RATE HIKE IS CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR SEPTEMBER • • There is now a 55% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed raise rates by 0.25% in September
Markets see Warsh endorsing a rate hike in September. Not everyone is convinced
Trump wants lower interest rates, but markets emerged from Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech betting against it. Derivatives contracts are now pricing in a roughly 62% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Warsh said inflation remains high and widespread, and financial conditions can hardly be described as restrictive. The message picked up by the bond market: The Fed may have to tighten rates even if it's not what the White House wants. If inflation remains high, will Warsh choose Trump's wishes or the Fed's credibility? #Arabic_Business
Recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh suggest that the central bank's fight against inflation may not be over. He believes current financing conditions are not tight, and recent better price data is insufficient to prove that the underlying inflation trend has substantially improved. Warsh stated, "I find it difficult to describe broad-based financial conditions as tight." He emphasized that policymakers must be confident that underlying inflation is moving "clearly and quickly" toward the target, otherwise "we still have work to do." He also expressed reservations about the summer data: "While this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, this does not tell me that the underlying trend has meaningfully improved." Reflected in the bond market, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note rose 0.118 percentage points to 4.348%, the second highest level this year and the largest single-day increase since March 12. The futures market has adjusted its expectations accordingly: the current pricing suggests a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and a 90% chance of at least one more rate hike this year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech Friday to answer critics of his muddled July press conference, delivering a clearer warning that stubborn inflation could push the Fed toward a rate hike. • • More:
There is now a 55% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed raise rates at some point in 2026 • • Earlier this month, the odds were over 75%
Live: A weakening labor market and elevated inflation is the toughest of combinations for the Fed to manage. It pits its two goals of low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market against one another and causes officials to have to make difficult trade-offs over which one to prioritize. Until this point, officials have focused their attention on inflation given the intensification of price pressures in recent months. A growing number of policymakers have talked about the need to raise interest rates to rein in inflation, which Kevin Warsh, the new chairman, has made the top priority of his tenure.
FT: Warsh says strong inflation could prompt September rate hike • Financial Times reports Kevin Warsh acknowledged communication missteps in his first 10 weeks as Fed chair but defended his reform agenda. Insiders say Warsh is prepared to raise rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation prints are strong and markets lift expectations for borrowing costs. They added the Fed could also reduce its $6.7 tln balance sheet to tighten policy, but interest rates remain the primary tool. (
MACRO: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly open to a September rate hike if inflation runs hot, with three FOMC members already dissenting in favor of an immediate hike at the Fed's last meeting.
#Video The Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted against it, advocating for a rate hike. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos summarized the three key takeaways from Fed Chairman Warsh's second policy meeting.
Wall Street reacts brutally to Fed chair Warsh’s interest rate hold: ‘the bond market puked on him’
Wall Street reacts brutally to Fed chair Warsh’s interest rate hold: ‘the bond market puked on him’
Some highlights from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's second press conference: • • He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit." • • One way to read this is to see the chairman treating market-delivered tightening as a substitute for policy action (for now) as the Fed awaits additional data on inflation trends.
Some highlights from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's second press conference: • • He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit." • • One way to read this is to see the chairman treating market-delivered tightening as a substitute for policy action (for now) as the Fed awaits additional data on inflation trends.
LIVE: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks after Fed holds interest rates steady
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.