Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
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Market pricing makes Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% the favorite at 95% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh suggest that the central bank's fight against inflation may not be over. He believes current financing conditions are not tight, and recent better price data is insufficient to prove that the underlying inflation trend has substantially improved. Warsh stated, "I find it difficult to describe broad-based financial conditions as tight." He emphasized that policymakers must be confident that underlying inflation is moving "clearly and quickly" toward the target, otherwise "we still have work to do." He also expressed reservations about the summer data: "While this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, this does not tell me that the underlying trend has meaningfully improved." Reflected in the bond market, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note rose 0.118 percentage points to 4.348%, the second highest level this year and the largest single-day increase since March 12. The futures market has adjusted its expectations accordingly: the current pricing suggests a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and a 90% chance of at least one more rate hike this year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech Friday to answer critics of his muddled July press conference, delivering a clearer warning that stubborn inflation could push the Fed toward a rate hike. • • More:
There is now a 55% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed raise rates at some point in 2026 • • Earlier this month, the odds were over 75%
Live: A weakening labor market and elevated inflation is the toughest of combinations for the Fed to manage. It pits its two goals of low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market against one another and causes officials to have to make difficult trade-offs over which one to prioritize. Until this point, officials have focused their attention on inflation given the intensification of price pressures in recent months. A growing number of policymakers have talked about the need to raise interest rates to rein in inflation, which Kevin Warsh, the new chairman, has made the top priority of his tenure.
FT: Warsh says strong inflation could prompt September rate hike • Financial Times reports Kevin Warsh acknowledged communication missteps in his first 10 weeks as Fed chair but defended his reform agenda. Insiders say Warsh is prepared to raise rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation prints are strong and markets lift expectations for borrowing costs. They added the Fed could also reduce its $6.7 tln balance sheet to tighten policy, but interest rates remain the primary tool. (
MACRO: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly open to a September rate hike if inflation runs hot, with three FOMC members already dissenting in favor of an immediate hike at the Fed's last meeting.
#Video The Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted against it, advocating for a rate hike. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos summarized the three key takeaways from Fed Chairman Warsh's second policy meeting.
Wall Street reacts brutally to Fed chair Warsh’s interest rate hold: ‘the bond market puked on him’
Wall Street reacts brutally to Fed chair Warsh’s interest rate hold: ‘the bond market puked on him’
Some highlights from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's second press conference: • • He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit." • • One way to read this is to see the chairman treating market-delivered tightening as a substitute for policy action (for now) as the Fed awaits additional data on inflation trends.
Some highlights from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's second press conference: • • He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit." • • One way to read this is to see the chairman treating market-delivered tightening as a substitute for policy action (for now) as the Fed awaits additional data on inflation trends.
LIVE: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks after Fed holds interest rates steady
LIVE: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks after Fed holds interest rates steady
Live from #AlArabiya_Business | Remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh after keeping interest rates unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%
#BREAKING US Federal Reserve holds rates steady in Warsh's second meeting as chair. Three of 12 members call for rate hike over surging inflation fueled by Middle East war. •
#BREAKING US Federal Reserve holds rates steady in Warsh's second meeting as chair. Three of 12 members call for rate hike over surging inflation fueled by Middle East war. •
Live: Taken on its own, today’s decision could be what Fed-watchers call a “hawkish hold” — policymakers left rates unchanged, but the three dissents could signal rate increases are likely before long. But because Warsh is still so new, and because he has said so little about his approach to policy, we don’t yet know how to interpret these signals.
Live: Taken on its own, today’s decision could be what Fed-watchers call a “hawkish hold” — policymakers left rates unchanged, but the three dissents could signal rate increases are likely before long. But because Warsh is still so new, and because he has said so little about his approach to policy, we don’t yet know how to interpret these signals.
BREAKING: Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged for 5th time this year, in Kevin Warsh's second policy meeting as chairman •
BREAKING: Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged for 5th time this year, in Kevin Warsh's second policy meeting as chairman •
In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its second meeting under Kevin Warsh, keeping them within a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. #AlArabiya_Business
In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its second meeting under Kevin Warsh, keeping them within a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. #AlArabiya_Business
JUST IN: • • Kevin Warsh and the Fed just left rates UNCHANGED at between 3.50%-3.75%
JUST IN: • • Kevin Warsh and the Fed just left rates UNCHANGED at between 3.50%-3.75%
FED DECISION: WHAT TO WATCH • • The Fed is expected to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but markets still see a roughly one-in-three chance of a surprise hike. • • The focus is on Chair Kevin Warsh's message as higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns despite softer June CPI. • • Morgan Stanley expects no hikes this year, while BofA believes Warsh could begin raising rates as soon as September.
Markets are pricing ~36% odds of a Fed rate hike at this week's FOMC. @CharlesSchwab's @jimferraioli expects Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to strike a hawkish tone but says tough rhetoric alone could do the work without an actual rate hike.
Citadel Securities said today that it expects Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week - Bloomberg
POLYMARKET TRADERS PRICING IN A 63% CHANCE OF A 2026 FED RATE HIKE, UP 11 POINTS • • Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 rose to 63% on Polymarket, up 11 points. • • May CPI hit 4.2% annually, a three-year high, driven mostly by energy costs tied to the Iran war. May payrolls added 172,000, beating estimates. • • At its June meeting, the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and its updated dot plot showed 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike by year-end, up from a median implying a cut in March. • • The renewed odds move follows this week's escalation in the Iran conflict, including Kuwait's reported missile and drone attack, the resumed US naval blockade, and Trump's comments that strikes will continue.
POLYMARKET TRADERS PRICING IN A 63% CHANCE OF A 2026 FED RATE HIKE, UP 11 POINTS • • Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 rose to 63% on Polymarket, up 11 points. • • May CPI hit 4.2% annually, a three-year high, driven mostly by energy costs tied to the Iran war. May payrolls added 172,000, beating estimates. • • At its June meeting, the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and its updated dot plot showed 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike by year-end, up from a median implying a cut in March. • • The renewed odds move follows this week's escalation in the Iran conflict, including Kuwait's reported missile and drone attack, the resumed US naval blockade, and Trump's comments that strikes will continue.
Sinking inflation gives Warsh and Trump a lift
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.