Predicted Fed rate under each Fed ChairKevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
Open$10Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 95% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES95¢
NO6¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
#Video The Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted against it, advocating for a rate hike. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos summarized the three key takeaways from Fed Chairman Warsh's second policy meeting.
Wall Street reacts brutally to Fed chair Warsh’s interest rate hold: ‘the bond market puked on him’
Some highlights from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's second press conference: • • He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit." • • One way to read this is to see the chairman treating market-delivered tightening as a substitute for policy action (for now) as the Fed awaits additional data on inflation trends.
LIVE: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks after Fed holds interest rates steady
Live from #AlArabiya_Business | Remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh after keeping interest rates unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%
#BREAKING US Federal Reserve holds rates steady in Warsh's second meeting as chair. Three of 12 members call for rate hike over surging inflation fueled by Middle East war. •
Live: Taken on its own, today’s decision could be what Fed-watchers call a “hawkish hold” — policymakers left rates unchanged, but the three dissents could signal rate increases are likely before long. But because Warsh is still so new, and because he has said so little about his approach to policy, we don’t yet know how to interpret these signals.
BREAKING: Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged for 5th time this year, in Kevin Warsh's second policy meeting as chairman •
In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its second meeting under Kevin Warsh, keeping them within a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. #AlArabiya_Business
JUST IN: • • Kevin Warsh and the Fed just left rates UNCHANGED at between 3.50%-3.75%
FED DECISION: WHAT TO WATCH • • The Fed is expected to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but markets still see a roughly one-in-three chance of a surprise hike. • • The focus is on Chair Kevin Warsh's message as higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns despite softer June CPI. • • Morgan Stanley expects no hikes this year, while BofA believes Warsh could begin raising rates as soon as September.
Markets are pricing ~36% odds of a Fed rate hike at this week's FOMC. @CharlesSchwab's @jimferraioli expects Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to strike a hawkish tone but says tough rhetoric alone could do the work without an actual rate hike.
Citadel Securities said today that it expects Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week - Bloomberg
POLYMARKET TRADERS PRICING IN A 63% CHANCE OF A 2026 FED RATE HIKE, UP 11 POINTS • • Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 rose to 63% on Polymarket, up 11 points. • • May CPI hit 4.2% annually, a three-year high, driven mostly by energy costs tied to the Iran war. May payrolls added 172,000, beating estimates. • • At its June meeting, the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and its updated dot plot showed 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike by year-end, up from a median implying a cut in March. • • The renewed odds move follows this week's escalation in the Iran conflict, including Kuwait's reported missile and drone attack, the resumed US naval blockade, and Trump's comments that strikes will continue.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says central bank has 'no tolerance' for elevated inflation
Warsh vows to tackle inflation in first testimony as Fed chairman
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says central bank has 'no tolerance' for elevated inflation
YESBloomberg98%match67¢+42%
Inflation will sideline the Fed for months, @JonathanJLevin says. Kevin Warsh may find himself waiting uncomfortably long to deliver the rate cuts President Trump is demanding (via @opinion)
YESunusual_whales99%match68¢+40%
Trump on Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh: "If our new head of the Fed, who I think is going to be great, and he's a really high-quality person, but if he does the job that he's capable, we can grow at 15%. I think more than that."
YESunusual_whales98%match66¢+44%
Reporter: "Did Kevin Warsh commit to you that he will push to cut interest rates if he is confirmed?" Trump: "No, but we talk about it. I've been following him."
Where does the news lean?
184YES55NO106neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 67% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
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