Predicted Fed rate under each Fed ChairKevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%
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Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Kevin Warsh raised rates and gave investors little reason to think it's a one-off. The Fed chairman's language suggests the central bank sees more work ahead, even if its projections show just one more hike. • • His comment about having "removed a dose of accommodation" is Fed-speak for stimulus, meaning officials don't think rates are restraining the economy even after raising them. • • He also cited geopolitics as a reason to act. His comment about a change in "our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely" outcome suggests the Fed is no longer treating the energy shock as something to wait out. • • That led one analyst, BNP's James Egelhof, to suggest that the first hike and the additional 2026 hike penciled into the rate projections is "likely a down payment on what might need to be a much more prolonged policy tightening cycle." • • President Trump said Wednesday evening that he was standing by the chairman, who he said has “a very tough board" that is politically opposed to him. “I talked to Kevin. I said, ‘You might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter." • • Warsh declined to discuss his conversations with the president but said the choice to raise rates had been “one that we have been preparing for and thinking about” since he arrived at the Fed in May. He called it a “sober,” “serious,” and “responsible” decision. • •
Trump stated that he still supports Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, and said he spoke with Warsh shortly before the central bank unanimously voted to raise interest rates.
TRUMP LASHES OUT AT FED AFTER WARSH BACKS RATE HIKE • • President Trump criticized the Fed after its unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, demanding rates be cut to 1% or lower. • • Trump said he still has confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh but called the Fed board “very hostile” and “very political.” • • Meanwhile, 16 of 18 policymakers see at least one more hike this year, with Warsh warning that inflation remains “too high” and underlying trends have not improved.
Here are the key points from the Federal Open Market Committee statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years, saying the goal is to bring inflation back to its 2% target "sooner." Policymakers also expect another rate hike before the end of the year and have removed their projections for a rate cut next year. They now believe the Fed will keep interest rates steady through 2027. During his press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly emphasized the strength of the economy and said today's rate hike removes "a dose of easing" from monetary policy. Warsh declined to answer questions about whether he had recently been in contact with US President Donald Trump. The Fed's decision was unanimous, and the projections of committee members, known as the "dot chart," show strong support for at least one more rate hike, with 16 officials believing it is likely. Yields on two-year US Treasury notes rose to their highest level since 2024 following the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy and Warsh's press conference, while longer-term yields held steady or declined, in stark contrast to the day of the last interest rate decision. Stocks fell, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 1%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%. #Arabic_Business
Fed’s table is set for a rate hike, a first under Warsh
Recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh suggest that the central bank's fight against inflation may not be over. He believes current financing conditions are not tight, and recent better price data is insufficient to prove that the underlying inflation trend has substantially improved. Warsh stated, "I find it difficult to describe broad-based financial conditions as tight." He emphasized that policymakers must be confident that underlying inflation is moving "clearly and quickly" toward the target, otherwise "we still have work to do." He also expressed reservations about the summer data: "While this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, this does not tell me that the underlying trend has meaningfully improved." Reflected in the bond market, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note rose 0.118 percentage points to 4.348%, the second highest level this year and the largest single-day increase since March 12. The futures market has adjusted its expectations accordingly: the current pricing suggests a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and a 90% chance of at least one more rate hike this year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech Friday to answer critics of his muddled July press conference, delivering a clearer warning that stubborn inflation could push the Fed toward a rate hike. • • More:
Live: A weakening labor market and elevated inflation is the toughest of combinations for the Fed to manage. It pits its two goals of low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market against one another and causes officials to have to make difficult trade-offs over which one to prioritize. Until this point, officials have focused their attention on inflation given the intensification of price pressures in recent months. A growing number of policymakers have talked about the need to raise interest rates to rein in inflation, which Kevin Warsh, the new chairman, has made the top priority of his tenure.
FT: Warsh says strong inflation could prompt September rate hike • Financial Times reports Kevin Warsh acknowledged communication missteps in his first 10 weeks as Fed chair but defended his reform agenda. Insiders say Warsh is prepared to raise rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation prints are strong and markets lift expectations for borrowing costs. They added the Fed could also reduce its $6.7 tln balance sheet to tighten policy, but interest rates remain the primary tool. (
MACRO: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly open to a September rate hike if inflation runs hot, with three FOMC members already dissenting in favor of an immediate hike at the Fed's last meeting.
Wall Street reacts brutally to Fed chair Warsh’s interest rate hold: ‘the bond market puked on him’
Some highlights from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's second press conference: • • He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit." • • One way to read this is to see the chairman treating market-delivered tightening as a substitute for policy action (for now) as the Fed awaits additional data on inflation trends.
LIVE: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks after Fed holds interest rates steady
#BREAKING US Federal Reserve holds rates steady in Warsh's second meeting as chair. Three of 12 members call for rate hike over surging inflation fueled by Middle East war. •
Live: Taken on its own, today’s decision could be what Fed-watchers call a “hawkish hold” — policymakers left rates unchanged, but the three dissents could signal rate increases are likely before long. But because Warsh is still so new, and because he has said so little about his approach to policy, we don’t yet know how to interpret these signals.
BREAKING: Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged for 5th time this year, in Kevin Warsh's second policy meeting as chairman •
In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its second meeting under Kevin Warsh, keeping them within a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. #AlArabiya_Business
NOBloomberg98%match77¢+27%
Inflation will sideline the Fed for months, @JonathanJLevin says. Kevin Warsh may find himself waiting uncomfortably long to deliver the rate cuts President Trump is demanding (via @opinion)
NOzerohedge98%match77¢+27%
President Donald Trump said his pick to lead the Federal Reserve can stoke the economy to grow at a rate of 15%, an exceedingly rosy target that underscores the pressure that Kevin Warsh will face if confirmed to the role. BBG Oh yeah, he can't wait to shrink the balance sheet
NOunusual_whales98%match76¢+29%
Reporter: "Did Kevin Warsh commit to you that he will push to cut interest rates if he is confirmed?" Trump: "No, but we talk about it. I've been following him."
Where does the news lean?
102YES324NO74neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
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