Houthis successfully target shipping on...?August 24
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$6Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
On July 28, Windward flagged AMZAN (IMO 9693745) as one of 21 Saudi-flagged tankers at risk of being targeted by the Houthis. • • On August 8, the Bahri-owned VLCC went dark, switching off its AIS for safety and security reasons. It resurfaced August 24 at 07:21 UTC, 63 nm off the Red Sea port of Yanbu, at the position where UKMTO reported a tanker had been struck by an unknown projectile. • • Bahri has confirmed AMZAN was the vessel hit but has not assigned responsibility. The Houthis claim a missile-and-drone attack. • • Get more live intelligence updates on our daily dashboard:
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
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