Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

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Market pricing makes August 17 the favorite at 89% across 39 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

All further outcomes (9 more):

August 23 · August 24 · August 25 · August 26 · August 27 · August 28 · August 29 · August 30 · August 31

What moved the odds?

9 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

August 10iranintl94%match2¢-100%
A small commercial vessel was targeted by a missile attack by Yemeni Houthi rebels affiliated with the Islamic Republic government in the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Tuesday, August 10. Yemeni government officials reported that three Pakistani crew members and an Indonesian sailor were killed and four others were injured in the incident.
August 10iranintl94%match2¢-100%
A small commercial vessel was targeted by a missile attack by Yemeni Houthi rebels affiliated with the Islamic Republic government in the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Tuesday, August 10. Yemeni government officials reported that three Pakistani crew members and an Indonesian sailor were killed and four others were injured in the incident.
August 9Iranian Journalist92%match2¢-100%
A reporter for Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya and Al Hadath TV channels reported on Tuesday, August 10, that three crew members were killed after a Houthi ballistic missile hit a commercial ship in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. According to the report, the victims were two Pakistanis and an Indonesian. Al Hadath reported that the missile was fired from eastern Taiz province and targeted the commercial ship as it passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The attack occurred amid ongoing threats to commercial ships and shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The Bab al-Mandab Strait is one of the world’s most important sea lanes for trade and energy transport between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. At the same time, fighting has continued on several fronts in Yemen. According to Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath reports, Yemeni government forces have targeted Houthi positions and equipment on several fronts. @VahidOOnLine The death toll from the Houthi attack on a commercial ship in Bab al-Mandab has risen to 4 @VahidOnLive @VahidOnline
August 10alarabiya92%match2¢-100%
Targeting commercial ships threatens food supplies for millions of Yemenis. Yemeni Ministry of Transport: The Houthis launched four missiles to inflict maximum casualties during the rescue operations of a commercial ship's crew. ====== Yemeni Ministry of Transport: The Houthis targeted the Yemeni ship "Tihama" with four ballistic missiles in Bab al-Mandab. The Houthis launched a fourth missile during the rescue operations of the ship's crew to inflict more casualties. Four others were injured as a result of the Houthi attack on the Yemeni ship. The Houthi targeting of commercial ships threatens food supplies for millions of Yemenis. From Al Arabiya
August 10iranintl96%match2¢-100%
Aram News, citing military sources on the west coast of Yemen, announced that the Houthis attacked a commercial cargo ship in the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Tuesday morning, August 10, which, according to initial statistics, resulted in the death of three crew members. Al-Arabiya also reported that the ship was targeted with a ballistic missile. According to reports, two Pakistani citizens and an Indonesian citizen lost their lives in the attack by the Houthis, supported by the Islamic Republic. Aram News, citing this military source, wrote: "The Houthis fired dozens of drones and missiles towards the port and city of Al-Mokha last night, a number of which were intercepted." The military source also added that according to initial investigations, the attack on the ship on the international shipping route occurred from rural areas west of Taiz province.
August 10iranintl95%match2¢-100%
Aram News, citing military sources on the west coast of Yemen, announced that Houthi militias attacked a commercial cargo ship in the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Tuesday morning, August 10, which, according to initial statistics, resulted in the death of three crew members. Al-Arabiya also reported that the ship was targeted with a ballistic missile. According to reports, two Pakistani citizens and an Indonesian citizen lost their lives in the attack by the Yemeni Houthi militia group supported by the Islamic Republic. Aram News, citing this military source, wrote: "Houthi militias fired dozens of drones and missiles towards the port and city of Al-Mokha last night, a number of which were intercepted." The military source also added that according to initial investigations, the attack on the ship on the international shipping route took place from rural areas west of Taiz province. is.
August 4iranintlbrk93%match48¢+108%
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced on August 4 that a ship was targeted by an unmanned surface vessel nine nautical miles southwest of Al-Mokha in Yemen and sank after catching fire.
August 2Maritime analytics97%match1¢-100%
Between July 20 and August 2, the Houthis declared all Saudi bound shipping a target and hit four Saudi tankers on three separate days. • • In that window, 22 Chinese linked vessels crossed Bab el-Mandeb and called at Saudi ports, broadcasting continuously with no dark activity. None were touched, and some held position for days before crossing, consistent with a reported case by case understanding with the Houthis. • • Vessel tracks shown below. Get the full breakdown by Windward:
July 28Maritime analytics96%match49¢-100%
A Saudi-flagged oil tanker, NCC GHAZAL, was reportedly struck by Houthi forces on July 28. • • In the weeks before, the vessel showed high-risk Red Sea behavior, including a 7-day AIS blackout off the Yemen coast, multiple ship-to-ship transfers, and repeated destination changes. It went dark again on July 23 and hasn't transmitted since. • • Windward's risk models flagged the vessel as a likely target two days before the strike. Behavior tells the story first.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

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