When will Hamas agree to disarm?December 31, 2026
Open$1.5Mas of
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The market prices a 21% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES21¢
NO80¢
as of
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20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Nikolay Mladenov: Hamas and armed factions in Gaza have agreed for the first time to hand over their weapons and transfer full governing powers to a UN-recognized Palestinian transitional administration. The roadmap includes the disarmament of all categories of weapons in Gaza, without gray areas or exempted categories. The Israeli withdrawal from Gaza will be phased after verification of the disarmament steps, according to a "sequential and reciprocal" mechanism. The plan stipulates that the "National Committee for the Administration of Gaza" will manage the Strip during the transitional phase.
Sources in the Peace Council, at the end of the extended meeting with Netanyahu: It was agreed that the IDF will not redeploy in Gaza until Hamas completely disarms and the entire Strip is demilitarized - of all light and heavy weapons and all tunnels. According to them, Hamas has committed to complete disarmament and an immediate cessation of all military activity, including rearming and digging tunnels. Israel will retain its full right to act if Hamas returns to terror, violence or attempts to rearm. It was also agreed to immediately establish two joint working teams for Israel and the Peace Council - for disarmament and security, and for civilian needs in the Strip.
A source in the Peace Council: The Peace Council informed the Prime Minister that Hamas has committed to fully disarm and immediately cease all military activity in the Gaza Strip, including rearming and digging tunnels. The Prime Minister confirmed that Israel will meet its previous commitments that remained on the table, which helped the United States secure the release of all the hostages – alive and, unfortunately, the bodies of the fallen. The Prime Minister and the Peace Council held in-depth and constructive discussions regarding the way forward for the full implementation of President Trump’s 20-point peace plan. It was agreed that there will be no redeployment of IDF forces from the Gaza Strip until Hamas is fully disarmed and the entire territory of the Strip is demilitarized – all weapons, light and heavy, and all tunnels. Any weapons collected will be fully decommissioned so that they cannot be reused. Israel reserves its full right to self-defense: If Hamas turns to terrorism, violence, or attempts to rearm, Israel reserves the right to act accordingly. With the backing of President Trump, the parties share clear goals: a completely demilitarized and free Gaza Strip Radicalization, which does not pose a threat to Israel, and in which the residents of Gaza will be able to work for prosperity and dignity through peace.
More from a Board of Peace official: • • It was agreed that there will be no IDF redeployment from Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed and all of Gaza is demilitarized - every weapon, light and heavy, and every tunnel. Every weapon collected will be fully decommissioned so it cannot be used again. Israel retains its full right of self-defense: if Hamas resorts to terror, violence, or attempts to rearm, Israel will retain the right to act accordingly. • • The Board of Peace informed the Prime Minister that Hamas has committed to fully disarm and to cease immediately all military activity in Gaza, including rearmament and tunnel digging. The Prime Minister affirmed that Israel will honor its outstanding past commitments that helped the United States secure the release of all hostages - the living and, sadly, the bodies of the dead. • • To ensure close collaboration, the parties agreed to immediately establish two joint working groups: one on security and the demilitarization of Gaza, which both Israel and the Board of Peace are determined shall be complete and prompt; and a second on basic needs, sanitation, clean water, and other public health issues for the people of Gaza. • • Backed by President Trump, the parties share clear goals: a fully demilitarized and deradicalized Gaza that poses no threat to Israel, and where Gazans can pursue prosperity and dignity peacefully.
Trump: Hamas has agreed to disarm... We have several channels of communication with the movement US President Donald Trump announces that Hamas has agreed to disarm, confirming that Washington has several channels of communication US envoy Jared Kushner met with Hamas leaders in Egypt before heading to Israel to meet with Netanyahu Hamas agreed last July to a US roadmap aimed at launching the second phase of the peace plan, which stipulates the disarmament of the movement and Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip #From_the_Event
After months of negotiating, the terror group did just that on July 30. • The approved proposal for Hamas’s gradual disarmament requires Israel to “fully complete, w/o delay, all remaining commitments under 2025 truce,” which included an Israeli pull-back to Yellow Line. (12/31)
Briefing reporters hours after Hamas approved the disarmament proposal, a senior US official indicated that its implementation could begin immediately because approval from Israel wasn’t even necessary to move forward. (3/31)
The US-controlled Board of Peace accomplished what many observers thought was impossible until just two weeks ago, when it coaxed Hamas to accept a proposal that envisions the terror group handing over all of its weapons. (2/31)
CAIRO (AP) — Hamas said Friday that it will begin disarming as part of a deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump that also requires Israel to end its strikes and withdraw from Gaza.
Hamas agrees to Trump’s plan to disarm in Gaza – The Latest
Hamas agrees to disarm under Trump plan
Hamas states in official statement on disarmament agreement: "Conditions include a cessation of Israeli military attacks and withdrawal from Gaza."
Hamas agrees to disarm: what are the challenges ahead?
Hamas has for agreed to hand over its weapons, subject to Israel upholding its end of the deal. • Hamas official Ghazi Hamad tells me: "We will not begin any weapons-related steps until Israel implements these commitments." • No comment from Israel so far
Hamas: We will only hand over our weapons if Israel withdraws While Trump claimed that Hamas and other Palestinian groups have agreed to "complete disarmament," Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas official, told Reuters that Hamas would only agree to hand over its weapons if Israel first fulfills its obligations.
According to him, Israel must end its attacks on Gaza, return its forces to the positions they were in before October, and also increase the flow of goods and aid to the region @IRIBNEWS_COM
Hamas We agreed to discuss including the issue of heavy weapons within the framework of the second phase of the agreement, but only subject to a cessation of hostilities, a complete withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip, the entry of an administrative committee and an international protection force, the disbandment of the armed militias, and the reconstruction of Gaza.
Live: Hamas agrees to disarm, but Israel yet to comment - what has been said?
Senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamed: "We will not take any steps related to disarmament before Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip. We will not implement any steps if the Israeli forces do not fulfill their obligations under the agreement. The issue of weapons is related to other issues, such as Israel's withdrawal and the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Israel will not interfere in the issue of disarmament, and the National Committee will be responsible for this task." [in reply to: Trump: The Peace Council reached a historic agreement to completely disarm Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza. This is a huge step towards lasting peace and security.]
Senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad told Al Jazeera tonight: "We will not take any steps related to disarmament before Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip. We will not implement any steps if the Israeli forces do not fulfill their obligations under the agreement. The issue of weapons is related to other issues, such as Israel's withdrawal and the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Israel will not interfere in the issue of disarmament, and the National Committee will be responsible for this task."
Ghazi Hamad, a member of the Hamas negotiating delegation, told Al Jazeera: We will not take any steps regarding the confiscation and storage of weapons before Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip.
Where does the news lean?
231YES57NO79neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
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